Manchin Says He Made 'No Commitments' To Biden On Reconciliation Package

[FBaggins]

11. Exactly

From the same TPM blog linked in the OP:

If Topline Must Come Down, Wyden Favors Shortening Years Of Funding In Reconciliation Package

Amongst the procedural options that Democrats are exploring to end the impasse that moderates are causing over the reconciliation bill’s price tag, Senate Finance Committee chair Ron Wyden (D-OR) said that he would be in favor of shortening the number of years that the package is good for in order to shave down its topline.

Wyden declined to detail the number of years that the reconciliation bill should cover. It currently runs for 10 years.

“I’m not going to get into the number of years. I was asked if there are changes in the number topline, I personally in the caucus will talk about it,” Wyden said. “I personally would favor a shorter number of years.”

If Manchin says "ok... 2.5 Trillion", Wyden's strategy would be to leave everything in the bill and just play duration games such that the headline price tag hits that figure - but no actual change to the bill. Yet Manchin clearly wants some aspects of the bill to go away (you've pegged the most likely first one).

But he doesn't want to start there because he doesn't want to make ANY progress between now and a vote on infrastructure in the House.