Rachel about to cover 269 strategy

[naturallyselected]

26. I don't buy it

Between now and Election Day, the President will solidify his lead (more likely), or the tide will turn, and Romney will take a lead (less likely). I know the national popular vote isn't what determines who wins the White House, but these battleground states aren't all that different than anywhere else. They're just the places where things are close. If President Obama gains in national popularity, his lead in the "safe"states will be bigger, and he'll take the majority of the swing states. If Romney gains in popularity nationally, his lead in his safe states will be bigger, and he'll take more of the swing states.

It's probably intuition more than anything else, but I just don't see an even split of the battleground states. I worry a lot more about Romney taking more of these states than expected, than things working out so that there is a tie. I hope the President solidifies his lead, and almost all of the swing states go his way, and maybe it's just wishful thinking, but I believe the rational part of my brain thinks that will be the outcome too.

I just hope President Obama finds a way to do it without needing Ohio, as I don't trust the vote count in that state at all. The chances Maine's electoral votes will be split? Not likely - I live here, and that second district elected a Democrat to be their House representative, Michaud has a big lead in the polls, and I don't see that district going to Romney, no matter how much they saturate the airwaves. The only reason we have the teabag nutcase we have for governor is a fluke 3-way election. All of Maine is safe for the President.

I don't think this election will be as close as many think. I'm hoping and thinking Obama will win big, but if Romney does, it won't be that close either.