rating over 50% in 2004. I can't remember now if he said 51 or 52%. But he lied. Suprise, surprise.
Bush Approval Ratings
Bush's average Election Day 2004 approval rating was 48.5% (based on 11 national polls). Since 1976, all presidential incumbents with approval below 50% on Election Day have lost their bid for re-election: Ford in ‘76, Carter in ‘80, Bush in ’92. Conversely, all incumbents with greater than 50% approval won re-election: Nixon in ’72, Reagan in ’84, Clinton in ’96. Bush was the only exception in ’04.
There was a near-perfect 0.87 statistical correlation between Bush’s 2004 monthly approval rating and the national pre-election poll monthly average. The final exit polls were forced to match a fraudulent vote count through the use of inflated Bush approval weightings. Exit pollsters Edison-Mitofsky used 53% for the Bush approval weighting in both the Final National and the Florida exit polls. In the 7:33pm NEP update, Bush approval was 51%. In addition, Bush vote shares were inflated in the Final – just like they were in the “Voted 2000” and “Location-size” categories.
Adjusting Bush approval to his actual 48.5% national average resulted in the following:
In the Florida Exit Poll, Kerry's share increased from 49.4% to 53.3%.
In the National Exit Poll, posted at 7:33pm on Nov.2, Kerry's share increased from 51.2% to 53.2%.
In the Final National Exit Poll, posted at 1:25pm on Nov.3, Kerry's share increased from 48.5% to 52.3%.
http://www.richardcharnin.com/BushApproval.htm
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