nate s. 538 updated ---- Nowcast 297 - 241 ---- 78.6% Obama to win ---- (Link attached)

[BlueStreak]

8. That's back to where he was on Sep 17

which was after the conventions, during the 47% and a couple of weeks before the first debate.

The public (and media) generally over-react. They over-reacted to the empty chair and the brazen 47% tape and all the other mistakes Romney made during that period. Some of that bounce was hard core Republicans just getting exasperated with Romney. They were never going to vote for Obama. They were just having a frustrating month.

What we are looking at now is closer to the real number. Obama still has some upside as the rest of the polls show entirely post-debate results. In the next day or two most of the media will give up on that "Mittmentum" garbage narrative and start telling it straighter. That will also give Obama a little bit of upside as the polling wraps up this week.

Does anybody know if Silver's model tries to factor in the early voting information?

It is interesting that Silver has the odds of winning OH at 76% and WI at 86%. Yet, it does appear that Romney is turning to WI as his last chance. If that is happening, it is because the Romney campaign calculates that:

a) less early voting is done in WI, so there is better chance of overtaking Obama; and

b) there have been fewer ads overall in WI, so WI voters might be more impressionable then OH voters at this stage.