Escalating fears that Putin might do something crazy [View all]

[Yorkie Mom]

Escalating fears that Putin might do something crazy

A brief note on a very strange day

Molly McKew

This article is an excerpt of a longer piece that will be posted shortly on Great Power — but given the strange events of the past 18 hours or so, including Putin’s “fifth column” speech from the bunker and a lot of strange flight traffic out of Moscow to points east and south, I wanted to post this section now. Maybe, sitting in Estonia as I write this, it just looks worse from here and will come to nothing. But, something feels … not great. This excerpt examines how to think about what previously seemed unthinkable, and urges us to be prepared for every eventuality. Not to engage in a cycle of escalation — but to decisively end it when the moment comes.

I think there are two points worth dwelling on.

First, there will always be fresh terror from Putin. A show trial. Chernobyl. Chem/bio insinuations. Sometimes I feel we go looking for new terror to control us when there is already terror enough. Until we take control of the pacing and strategy of this war, the fears Putin creates for us are boxing us in. This has been the Russian strategy from the start. I don’t know why we are not more clear on this. It is the clear reason why we have so much intelligence on what they planned to do and what it would look like. Because they wanted the White House to see it, because they knew what the likely reaction would be. And they were right. We put ourselves into the box and took actions off the table that could have changed the outcome. We accepted the stage that Putin set. We still are. I will always believe that this is the wrong course of action. It has led us to this situation where Putin seems to be unraveling and the danger increasing before our eyes.

This fear is absolutely useless. “Russian warship, go f*ck yourself” must be the mandatory attitude of whoever will lead us through this confrontation with Putin.

Second, on nukes and Putin’s nuclear blackmail. Putin is a coward — by which I mean, he is not brave. He plans and acts in ways where he believes he has the greatest advantage and will endure the least costs for the greatest rewards. He does take risks — when there is empty space before him into which he can move before an opponent can. But he is not the type to die bravely and nobly in heroic sacrifice for his nation — as evidenced by his broadcasts from a bunker in the Urals (or wherever).

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We are approaching an end stage where the only possible way out is a military defeat of Putin — a strategic defeat of Putin, before everything unravels too far to stop a worse calamity. Are we ready for that? Not on old paper plans, but in our minds? It is imperative that we stop reacting, and start to set the terms, while this is still possible.

We must stop being afraid of Putin — as the Ukrainians have done. It is the only way ahead.

More: https://www.greatpower.us/p/escalating-fears-that-putin-might?s=w

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