I have no confidence that we will win Florida, but if we do it will be an EC landslide for Obama, Romney has no chance at winning.
http://www.barackobama.com/fl/entry/fl-inside-the-early-vote-numbers-florida
First, Democrats have dramatically cut into Republicans advantage in vote-by-mailan area where the Republicans have historically been stronger. At this point four years ago, the Republican advantage exceeded 257,000 voters. But this year, its just over 33,500an 87 percent drop. In a state President Obama won by nearly 240,000 votes, that's a 223,500-vote swing even the dizziest Republican can't spin away. Democrats have also cut the GOPs 2008 advantage in absentee ballots returned so far by 55 percent.
Why does all this matter? Remember: In spite of the vote-by-mail disadvantages we faced in 2008, President Obama still won Florida. In 2012, were closing those gaps.
Second, the Florida electoratejust like the rest of the nationshas grown much more diverse since 2008:
Of the over 300,000 Hispanics who have registered to vote since President Obama was elected four years ago, nine out of ten signed up as Democrats or Independents, and only 10 percent registered as Republicans.
More than 100,000 African-American and Caribbean-American voters registered since November 2008.
Among those who have cast mail ballots already, 14 percent are African-American, Latino Democrats, or Latino Independentsup from 12 percent at this point in 2008. Latino Republicans have fallen from 7 percent of mail voters at this point in 2008 to just 5 percent today.
We estimate minority voters will make up more than 30 percent of the vote in Florida this year, up from 28 percent in 2008