Is it a realistic possibility...

[regnaD kciN]

7. I don't think you'd see a split...

...but, if Republicans retake Congress and then the White House in 2024, we're very likely to get a federal law banning it everywhere.

Even if that doesn't happen, I think those feeling relief for being in a "blue" state shouldn't feel too comfortable. Until now, state legislators have had the safety of not seeing abortion become an issue in their races, simply because the matter had been settled nationally. Now, "right-to-life" will become an issue in their elections as well, and Republicans in swing suburban as well as rural districts will be painting the Democratic candidate as a "baby killer." Virtually every blue state has a pretty substantial red area, and a lot of "purple" ones that may be inhabited by enough single-issue voters on that subject to feel it's their moral duty to vote for the "pro-life" candidate even if they agree with the "pro-choice candidate" on every other issue. In short, every state race is going to see abortion become a crucial issue...and it only takes one low-turnout election with a determined anti-abortion bloc to give any state, including California or Massachusetts, an outright ban on abortion.

In other words, if you're pro-choice, you're going to need to buckle up and be ready for the fight of your lives, every single election.