General Discussion
In reply to the discussion: Reminder: HRC lost the Electoral College by less than 100K votes spread over 3 states. [View all]Celerity
(54,325 posts)out over 3 states (WI, AZ, GA) and Trump would still be POTUS.
Also, people for forget that Hillary did poorly with 2016 African American turnout (and Trump did slightly better, especially with black men).
If Hillary had the same AA turnout in just 4 CITIES (Milwaukee, Detroit, Philadelphia, and Pittsburgh) in 3 States as we did on average for the previous 6 elections and they voted in the same patterns, she would have won.
In fact, the number of votes she lost with AA voters in just those 4 cities easily exceeded the TOTAL number of Stein voters in those 3 entire States, and it isn't even at all accurate to assign (like most incorrectly do) EVERY Stein vote to Hillary, as many never have and never will vote for a Dem POTUS. They will either vote Green, someone else, or stay home, but I do so anyway to further prove my point.
People forget that in the 2008 general, THIRTY PER CENT (staggeringly more than Sanders in 2016, both in percentage and in sheer numbers) of Hillary primary voters defected or stayed home. 5% stayed home or didn't vote for POTUS, and an amazing 25% defected straight to the Rethug scum McCain and his batshit cray VP Palin (plus a few voted 3rd party).
In fact, the 2008 Hillary primary voter betrayal rate was so bad, so large, that you could have, nationwide, in 2016, given Hillary ALL the Stein vote, increase the AA turnout to its previous 6 election norm, and Hillary would have not only still lost the Electoral College in 2016, but she would have lost the POPULAR VOTE as well too, if we had the total NET defection raw numbers in 2016 that we had from her 2008 primary voters.
It's not only a lost vote in the general for a Dem primary voter to not vote Dem in the general, but it's a gained vote for the Rethug as well if they fully flip and vote, thus a double bad impact). The total NET negative impact for the 2008 Hillary primary voters betrayal (stay at home/no vote for POTUS, vote 3rd party, (which I only count as a net loss of one as 3rd parties never win, they only drain or draw out otherwise non voters), OR the big one, a 2-for-1 flip straight to the Rethug McCain) was around 9.7 MILLION votes.
The only reason those massive totals of 2008 backstabbers (racists in more than a few cases) are rarely spoken of (other than the occasional PUMA reference) is that Obama won easily.
It was a perfect storm for the good: best candidate in ages, social media was not fully kicked in to make tens of millions worse than they already were, a shit opponent who picked a worse VP, plus the raging global economic crisis, etc etc.
If Obama had lost in a close race, those 2008 Hillary primary betrayers, so staggeringly large in percentage, raw numbers, and net impact, would still be (rightfully so) shit on endlessly to this day.