What are the chances that if a national abortion law passes, it would get struck down?

[exboyfil]

11. Fetus personhood

I suspect that would be the next thing. They might even get away with it if the laws are too porous for their constituents liking (ie too many women are fleeing across the border to get abortions).

You need to convince small states of the need for reproductive freedom. I just don't know how you do that. They are also the states with the most zealous "Christians". You also need the right two openings come up on the Supreme Court - I don't know if Roberts and one is enough. Right now if Thomas was unable to continue, I am not even sure you could get past Manchin and Sinema to get a liberal justice seated.