I think we may be witnessing the demise of the GOP

[Scootaloo]

59. That's what I was getting at.

It's a bit of an odd example, but I participate in some chat-based Role-playing games's. over the years, I've been part of several, and they have a definite life-and-death cycle.

1) The chat site begins, usually with a core of people who share a similar vision. They reach out to other communities trying to recruit and expand their base. In so doing they pull in a wide variety of players, and the "startup" period is marked by a lot of different characters created from a lot of angles and with a lot of different ideas.

2) The recruitment drive tapers off, and the players get a feel for one another. Some leave, others bring in their own friends, it's still fairly dynamic, but by now most people know everyone else and how the game plays. it's "comfortable." THis period can be very brief, or it can last years.

3) Cliques form. These are groups of players who have a certain idea on how the game should be played, and tend to be resentful of others who feel differently. They struggle to take charge to get their ideas implemented. This is a pretty volatile point; maybe the clique gets bored and leaves. Maybe they succeed in a bid for power, and it actually does well, taking us back to #1. More often when this happens though, the other players get disgusted and leave, or are actively driven away by the clique.

3.5) Sometimes other things happen to drive away players; new technology makes the game's medium obsolete, perhaps. Maybe a new game starts up that captures more people's interest. Maybe they just get bored or drift off due to attrition. Most often, these are events that lead to a clique making a power bid.

4) If the power-bid succeeds and results in a player exodus, that clique will usually remain, playing with themselves (in the figurative and often literal sense) and make an active effort to alienate and drive off any "noobs" who might drift into the game. Eventually even they get bored, and the game dies, leaving another empty husk of HTML chat-coding floating through the wastelands of the internet.

Like I said, it's an odd example, but I think it applies to lots of limited social organizations (that is, an organization that is defined by and limited to a certain goal, activity, or idea, as opposed to dynamic organizations, like a town or school) including political parties.

The Democratic Party has gone through Steps 1-3 several times. its ideology is loose and flexible and welcomes new input and dissent, even to the detriment of the party (Segregationist inclusion, for a big example). The Republican party... has been going through step 4 since the 1890's. It's a glacial pace, but it's inevitable.