Can I get a hell yeah? [View all]

[kpete]

Last edited Wed Oct 31, 2012, 10:43 AM - Edit history (1)

TUE OCT 30, 2012 AT 09:50 PM PDT
Reason #26 to be optimistic: Nate Silver rises to 77.4% [+bonus good news]
byMeMeMeMeMeFollow

Nate Silver's http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/ latest prediction, as of T-minus 6 days before the election, is a 77.4% chance of Obama winning, up from a 72.9% chance just yesterday.

His electoral vote count stands at 299, up from 294.6 yesterday. This closely aligns with the current prediction of Sam Wang at Princeton Election Consortium, which stands at 305 electoral votes. http://election.princeton.edu/2012/10/31/election-night-scenario-tracking-tool/


Obama's numbers continue their long and steady rise for the past three weeks. Look at the trends. Ask yourself: would you trade places with Mitt Romney right now?

Bonus good news: Thanks to trix in comments, new Quinnipiac Ohio poll:
http://www.dailykos.com/comments/1152909/48177324#c5

Obama 50
Romney 45

Can I get a hell yeah?

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/31/1152909/-Reason-1-to-be-optimistic-Nate-Silver-rises-to-77-4


UPDATE TO ADD: Latest Swing State Polls

Here are the latest polls from the battleground states:

Ohio: Obama 50%, Romney 45% (Quinnipiac)

Florida: Obama 48%, Romney 47% (Quinnipiac)

Michigan: Obama 48%, Romney 45% (Detroit News)

Pennsylvania: Obama 48%, Romney 44% (Franklin and Marshall)

Virginia: Obama 49%, Romney 47% (Quinnipiac)

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/10/31/latest_swing_state_polls.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+PoliticalWire+%28Political+Wire%29



ANOTHER UPDATE:


Barack Obama to be re-elected President in 2012

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65.0%
CHANCE
Last prediction was: $6.50 / share
http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=743474
Today's Change: +$0.09 (+1.4%)


TPM
The Big Polls So Far Today

DAVID KURTZ OCTOBER 31, 2012, 10:08 AM 454

NYT/CBS: Obama up 5 points in Ohio, 2 points in Virginia, and 1 point in Florida.

Franklin & Marshall College: Obama up 4 points in Pennsylvania.

PPP: Obama up by 5 in Wisconsin and in Iowa.

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2012/10/the_big_polls_so_far_today.php?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Talking-Points-Memo+%28Talking+Points+Memo%3A+by+Joshua+Micah+Marshall%29