General Discussion

Amishman

(5,929 posts)

1. I don't think so, most experts put our chances at keeping the senate at all as a tossup

Reply to Baitball Blogger (Original post)

Fri Jul 8, 2022, 08:26 AM

Jul 2022

52+ for us is roughly a 20% chance per 538, and other pundits (and the betting markets) seem to be in alignment on that. I don't see any credible sources putting major gains for us as a likely outcome.

I think it is more that what we are negotiating is way scaled back from the scope of Build Back Better, so they are willing to continue talking. Plus I think Manchin would have talks forever on anything, and just move the goalposts continually.

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Is the alleged fact that we are going to increase the number of Democratic senators [View all] Baitball Blogger Jul 2022 OP

I don't think so, most experts put our chances at keeping the senate at all as a tossup Amishman Jul 2022 #1

It is not that I completely agree. I would like to point out that since '14... Hugin Jul 2022 #2

Just the opposite I'm afraid FBaggins Jul 2022 #3

Yea DetroitLegalBeagle Jul 2022 #4

Both things are likely true FBaggins Jul 2022 #5

I would imagine they don't want to be in the minority. Raven123 Jul 2022 #6

I totally expect both to "defect". Why we'll need more than just two to the sum total, imo. msfiddlestix Jul 2022 #7

Hmmm...that would be an interesting, but tragic twist. Baitball Blogger Jul 2022 #8

I hope I'm wrongfully reading both of them. Just based on their behavior, decisions. msfiddlestix Jul 2022 #9