War appears imminent between Serbia and Kosovo

[Wounded Bear]

3. Long-standing disputes in the Balkans have never been resolved...

and I'm talking centuries here, not just decades. It contributed (big time) to the start of WWI and flared up again in the 1990s following the death of Tito and the breakup of Yougoslavia. There are ethnic groups that want their own countries, there are countries that want to expand at the expense of their neighbors, and of course there are "big powers" that want to flex their influence in the region. Hell, there is no guarantee that there are resolutions to the issues in the region.

Russia still seeks a "warm water port" somewhere and seeks a path through the Baltics in client states or puppet regimes to the Mediterranean that bypasses Turkey and the Bosphorus.

There has been a lid of sorts on the violence for a while. Sounds like it is popping up again and all the RW authoritarian bullshit going on around the world hasn't helped at all.

NATO has been keeping that lid on things in the region, but they're getting tired and the stress of the Ukraine war hasn't helped.