Colin's 2022 election predictions

[Celerity]

16. No one is talking about a massive Blue wave election, have yet to see that one, and even then that

Red Wall at state legislature level will very like not yield a net +9 state gain for us (which is need to take control). Remember it is more than 9 flipped chambers needed to flip the entire legislature, the non Nebraska involved (see below) minimum needed would be 14 chambers flipped R to D (the 3 tied with one chamber each red chamber there flipped, which takes the count to 30 R, 20 D, then we would need to flip 10 Red chambers in 5 Red states, which takes it to 25-25, and finally one more red chamber in a current Red state to to take it to 25 D, 24 R, 1 tied.

In THEORY, if we flipped the unicameral (the only state that only has one chamber) Nebraska as one of those 5 Red state complete flips, then the number would be 13 chamber flips needed at minimum, but I can assure you, we have zero shot at flipping the NE legisllature Blue, it simply is not happening.

24 seats (of the 49 total total seats that comprise the NE legislature) are up for grabs, BUT only 14 seats are actually being contested. We would have to hold all our current seats and flip 8 Red seats to Blue from those 14 seats to get to 25 D, 24 R, AND, there may not even be 8 Rethug currently held seats that are contested, let alone remotely possible flips.