Colin's 2022 election predictions

[ColinC]

40. Gerrymanders certainly create favorable odds for a party by packing voters

But those particular odds can only help so much when everything shifts against them. I also seem a bit surprised how much faith folks are putting in current polling and the same formulas that got Kansas so enormously wrong. They can certainly help us get some clues of the national sentiment, but when they create likely voter models largely based on a completely different election with drastically different factors at play, they can't be taken with more than a grain of salt imho.