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If we're going to have a fiscal cliff, let the GOP self-immolate. Go after defense...
Dave Lutz of Stifel, Nicolaus is looking for a "footprint" in the market that could be consistent with traders predicting a Romney victory.
He finds 4 big datapoints:
MBS IMPACT - A second term for Obama could lead to changes in FHFA leadership, possibly posing principal reduction-related policy risk for MBS / Expect investors to scale back expectations of how much agency MBS Fed will purchase under QE3 if Romney wins (CSFB, Barclays) – Normally, we have a 1% spread between 30Y FNMA Coupons, and the 10YY. On QE3 – that collapsed down to 4bp. Over the last month, as Romney has gained momentum – it has rallied to 55bp – up 10bp in the last week alone.
DOLLAR AND GOLD - Romney win would likely deliver tighter monetary policy, looser fiscal policy due to commitment to cut taxes without raising revenue (ING) – Gold has lost 5% since Romney started gaining momentum – and the DXY is 1% stronger
FISCAL CLIFF –Many feel that a Romney Win will alleviate concerns about Sequestration and going over the Cliff – While a Obama victory will cause higher polarized debate over the cliff, as the GOP will not easily lose any bargaining strength. Ground “Zero” for these concerns in the market should be the Defense Contractors (The ITA is up 2.5% the last 2 days, and nearing YTD highs) – The Fed IT Contractors (SAI +4% this week / CACI 8% (earnings as well) / MANT +7% this week). 10-year yield could fall to 1% or lower should tax increases, spending cuts hit in full; at 1.75% yield, market “somewhat optimistic” deal will be reached (DB)
FINANCIAL FRIENDLY – A Romney Win may help with much of the regulatory stress our Financials are feeling of late here in the States. We are seeing HEAVY call buying today in the XLF – representing our largest Banks and Insurers. I think it’s too hard to tell if this is a Sandy Trade. Over 100k Nov and Dec XLF calls have printed this morning
He finds 4 big datapoints:
MBS IMPACT - A second term for Obama could lead to changes in FHFA leadership, possibly posing principal reduction-related policy risk for MBS / Expect investors to scale back expectations of how much agency MBS Fed will purchase under QE3 if Romney wins (CSFB, Barclays) – Normally, we have a 1% spread between 30Y FNMA Coupons, and the 10YY. On QE3 – that collapsed down to 4bp. Over the last month, as Romney has gained momentum – it has rallied to 55bp – up 10bp in the last week alone.
DOLLAR AND GOLD - Romney win would likely deliver tighter monetary policy, looser fiscal policy due to commitment to cut taxes without raising revenue (ING) – Gold has lost 5% since Romney started gaining momentum – and the DXY is 1% stronger
FISCAL CLIFF –Many feel that a Romney Win will alleviate concerns about Sequestration and going over the Cliff – While a Obama victory will cause higher polarized debate over the cliff, as the GOP will not easily lose any bargaining strength. Ground “Zero” for these concerns in the market should be the Defense Contractors (The ITA is up 2.5% the last 2 days, and nearing YTD highs) – The Fed IT Contractors (SAI +4% this week / CACI 8% (earnings as well) / MANT +7% this week). 10-year yield could fall to 1% or lower should tax increases, spending cuts hit in full; at 1.75% yield, market “somewhat optimistic” deal will be reached (DB)
FINANCIAL FRIENDLY – A Romney Win may help with much of the regulatory stress our Financials are feeling of late here in the States. We are seeing HEAVY call buying today in the XLF – representing our largest Banks and Insurers. I think it’s too hard to tell if this is a Sandy Trade. Over 100k Nov and Dec XLF calls have printed this morning
Romney: Elect Me Or House GOP Will Wreck The Economy (Yahoo News Headline)
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