Who will win the Alaska At Large Special Election?

[WarGamer]

3. This is the best I can understand it.

Peltola (D) 74,496
Palin (R) 58,149
Begich (R) 52,320



Since only the top 2 leaders in "first choice" proceed to the "second choice tabulation"...

That means that the Begich votes, all 52,320 of them are scanned for their 2nd choice vote.

That means that (rough math) XX% of the Begich voters (he's a R) would have had to choose the D as 2nd choice.

Let's say it's a 60/40 split meaning 40% of Begich voters chose the D as their 2nd choice

Caution rough math:

Peltola (D) 95k votes

Palin (R) 90k votes


Now lets say 70/30 split with 30% of Begich voters picking the D as their 2nd choice.

Peltola (D) 90k votes

Palin (R) 96k votes




This is why Palin is forecast as the winner by the betting websites, etc because the number of Republicans who voted for Begich and then picked the D as 2nd choice would be relatively small... 10-20% tops.