Who will win the Alaska At Large Special Election?

[Just A Box Of Rain]

13. Here is my rough math.

My first assumption in advance was that 40% of Begich votes would not indicate a second choice preference, being unwilling to vote for either Palin or for a Democrat (Peltola), or just plain not bothering.

If accurate, that would leave 31,329 votes to split.

My second operating assumption (in advance) was the vote would split 3/1 for Palin.

Begich, Nick REP 52,320 27.84%
Palin, Sarah REP 58,149 30.94%
Peltola, Mary S. DEM 74,496 39.64%

If these assumptions (which are just educated guesses on my part) held up Petola would pick up 7,848 and Palin 23,544.

That would give:

Peltola 74,496 + 7,848 = [82,344]
Palin 58,149 + 23,544 = [81,693]

So Peltola is a squeaker.

I did not "work backwards" with these assumptions. I also assumed a kind of worst case scenario that didn't fully figure the damage of the Roe reversal, the general trend towards Democrats, or the appeal of Mary Peltola.

I'm cautiously optimistic.