Ralston calls Nevada for Obama but still unsure about the Senate race. [View all]

[RandySF]

PRESIDENT: I know the Romney folks and some RNC operatives believe they can still win, despite trailing by nearly 50,000 votes in early voting. But they need everything to break right – President Obama hemorrhages Democrats and independents vote in huge numbers for Romney, two things I do not see happening. It would be very difficult for Obama to lose Nevada, especially because I think more than two-thirds of the vote is in, so whatever turnout advantage the GOP has on Tuesday won’t be enough. Obama, 50 percent; Romney, 46 percent; others and “none of the above,” 4 percent.

U.S SENATE: Two years ago, I was pretty sure Reid was going to win, despite what the public polls said. This year, I have been pretty sure Heller would win, and the public polls have backed that up. But a few weeks ago, the cockiness of Team Heller seemed to dissipate as his advisers realized Romney was a drag and Obama might drag Rep. Shelley Berkley to victory. I would not be surprised to see her win now – I have seen data that backs that up. There may even be a recount – it is so close. (Trivia: Who presided over the last recount in a U.S. Senate race here? A secretary of state named….Dean Heller. 1998. Harry Reid and John Ensign. Get ready, Ross Miller.) I really think Berkley was cut at the end by the Heller ads on house-flipping and the Italy trip – the latter is obvious because her last spot was a defense against it. The seminal question is this: Can the Democratic machine save a congresswoman who has been caricatured as an unlikable and corrupt elected official and whose image is badly tarnished? My answer (and I am not confident in saying this): Almost. Heller, 49 percent; Berkley, 48 percent; others and none of the above, 3 percent. (Have I mentioned it could go either way?)


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