Election Night: When we will know we won

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10. In 2008 Virginia and NH were deceptive - McCain was ahead early, though Obama won big

It seemed that Appalachia got counted first, northern Virginia last. Obama only went ahead in Virginia at the very end, long after it was decided - I think he eventually won by +8. Don't worry if Virginia looks bad at the start!

Obama also was behind in the initial count in New Hampshire.

By contrast, the Ohio vote came in fairly uniformly in 2008 - Obama was ahead, start to finish.

It may help to look at some counties for an early indication - otherwise wait for Ohio.

If Obama wins Ohio, he will win the election if he wins just 2 of the smaller swing states: New Hampshire, Iowa or Nevada, where he is favored. Or Colorado or Virginia. I expect them to come in (for Obama) in the following order: first Ohio, then New Hampshire, then Iowa, with Virginia and the western states at the end. Ohio will make it 99% certain, Iowa will clinch it.