General Discussion
In reply to the discussion: I don't get the Russian strategy (or lack thereof). [View all]Xolodno
(7,303 posts)If they escalate, then NATO will do so as well. It's a proxy war being fought, so a difficult balance is being held. Add to that, most of the productive areas of Ukraine are now under occupation of the Russian armed forces, even with the recent defeats, they are morale builders for Ukraine but don't have much value. It's not a full declaration of war....at least not yet and let's hope it never gets there. But most of Ukraine's main economic hubs are gone.
Furthermore, the whole notion Russia is out of tanks is bonkers. Putin attacked with the forces of one military district and only one and was designed for defense, not offense. The remaining four have to be maintained with its equipment and troops in case of the possibility of someone taking advantage of depleted forces near their border...and they have a huge fucking border. They also keep the bulk of their conventional forces and production closer in, it's what saved them in WW2.
With that said, I've seen some twitter feeds where they are moving equipment from other military districts to areas near Ukraine. And the troops in those districts will probably be rotated in. The mobilized troops will probably take their places and moth balled equipment will replace the transferred equipment. But at different rates, for example 50k troops will be replaced by 80k mobilized.
Just about every US General said they attacked with not enough equipment and troops. But that may change soon.
Finally, we are here in an echo chamber, so it's very one sided (hey, some think they know better than our current DOJ). But recent polls here in the USA show that people are tiring of the war and want to see a negotiated settlement. Likewise, energy prices in Europe are skyrocketing which is sapping the populace there. And nations that took in refugee's are starting to resent it. And we have a global recession on its way...it's not here yet, but it is coming. This is what Putin is waiting for, the taste for war to leave everyone's mouth and force a North/South Korea type of settlement. His speech the other day made clear what Macron and Blair warned about a while back, Russia is basically divorcing Europe and embracing Asia.
Nor is this one theatre of operations, both China and Russia have been active in Africa, Asia, the Pacific, South and Central America. All of the West and aligned West nations oppose this war, the rest of the world is basically "whatever" and give the token admonishment.
Some even see this as NATO's play to look strong again after the disastrous pull out of Afghanistan and ongoing problems in Libya. And those more cynical....ah, I won't say it, said plenty to get flamed already. And I'm getting tired of trying to act logical vs. those emotional.