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carpetbagger

(5,516 posts)
8. I told my mother to be ready to evacuate from Ft. Myers with 12 hours' notice on Saturday morning.
Sun Oct 2, 2022, 09:13 PM
Oct 2022

It was pretty clear that the scatter of the models was higher than recent average and that some of the models were running it towards SWFL. I told her the chances were about 15 percent that an evacaution would be necessary, but that she'd have one day to take action. To her advantage, she lives high up in a big condo on the river, and the only reason I told her to get out was that I thought a direct hit would leave her unable to navigate the surrounding streets for 2-3 days (2 days) due to a 6-9 foot storm surge (10 feet), and I didn't think in her 80s that it was smart to sit in a condo without air conditioning for more than about a day.

All I did to get that was to read three blogs, look at a spaghetti model and the NHC forecasts. It's as complicated as rocket science, but there's internets full of these people called meteorologists who used to work at this place called NOAA.

Trump had his sharpie, but DeSantis appears to still be using the hurricane tracking maps on the paper bags from Publix from when we were kids.

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