FiveThirtyEight Updated! - Election Eve - Obama Up Big! [View all]

[AaronMayorga]

Last edited Mon Nov 5, 2012, 10:50 PM - Edit history (1)

November 6th Forecast*:
Electoral Vote: Obama 315.3, Romney 222.7
Chance of Win: Obama 91.4%, Romney 8.6%
Popular Vote: Obama 50.9%, Romney 48.2%

*November 6th Forecast is now aligned with Now Cast.

Swing States:
Ohio: 86.8% Chance of Obama Win
Iowa: 81.2% Chance of Obama Win
Wisconsin: 94.5% Chance of Obama Win
New Hampshire: 80.2% Chance of Obama Win
Nevada: 90.0% Chance of Obama Win
Colorado: 69.7% Chance of Obama Win
Virginia: 72.6% Chance of Obama Win
Florida: 52.3% of Obama Win
North Carolina: 77.2% of Romney Win

Electoral Distribution Probability:
Obama 303: 14% : Obama wins all swing states but Florida and North Carolina.
Obama 332: 17% : Obama wins all swing states but North Carolina.
Obama 347: 11% : Obama wins all swing states.

Senate:
Democrats: 52.5
Republicans: 47.5

Chance of Majority:
Democrats: 92.2%
Republicans: 7.8%

Notable States:
Massachusetts: 93.6% of Warren Win
Ohio: 96.5% of Brown Win
Missouri: 88.3% of McCaskill Win
Indiana: 67.7% of Donnelly Win
Wisconsin: 77.2% of Baldwin Win
New Mexico: 93.2% of Heinrich Win
Virginia: 85.0% Chance of Kaine Win
West Virginia: 89.7% Chance of Manchin Win
New York: 100% Chance of Gillibrand Win (That's My Girl!)