General Discussion

Elessar Zappa

(16,385 posts)

31. I take all polls with a grain of salt.

Tue Oct 18, 2022, 03:36 PM

Oct 2022

They missed on Trump’s election and they missed badly on the Kansas abortion referendum. It’s not a conspiracy to hurt Dems or Repubs but they just haven’t been able to figure out an accurate model. It’s my belief that we’ll outperform the polls due to Roe being overturned but I won’t be too terribly shocked if I’m wrong and the opposite occurs. It’s just a crapshoot, imo. My best guess is we’ll keep the Senate and have a 50% chance of keeping the House.

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Why look, a poll that shows the opposite of NYT's [View all] mcar Oct 2022 OP

K & R...because we need some good news...nt Wounded Bear Oct 2022 #1

Polls have been all over the place. Elessar Zappa Oct 2022 #2

Hey Steve Kornacki: PCIntern Oct 2022 #3

Ha!! Good one PortTack Oct 2022 #5

awww.... i like him! samnsara Oct 2022 #6

I did at 1st but have grown so weary of his schtick... sdfernando Oct 2022 #16

I agree True Blue American Oct 2022 #48

Yes I did hear that. sdfernando Oct 2022 #56

Steve Kornacki is gay? Polybius Oct 2022 #55

Yes.....he came out publicly in 2011. sdfernando Oct 2022 #57

I second that! mcar Oct 2022 #32

Well, well, imagine that. brer cat Oct 2022 #4

The enthusiasm number - I agree with JustAnotherGen Oct 2022 #7

We can't trust this! Sympthsical Oct 2022 #8

33 different warranties on my car.....lol. Butterflylady Oct 2022 #20

LOL True Blue American Oct 2022 #49

Like that. If we can't believe bad polls because of cell Laura PourMeADrink Oct 2022 #24

I took a poll Sympthsical Oct 2022 #27

Are you a story teller/writer/comic? Very good !!! Laura PourMeADrink Oct 2022 #41

This is a more reliable poll Farmer-Rick Oct 2022 #9

This has to affect the polls, too. For two years, the 'leader' of the Republican party has been busy 70sEraVet Oct 2022 #54

I and others did NOT trust the NYT poll LetMyPeopleVote Oct 2022 #10

That poll spent more time defending it then any poll I have ever seen and the sample was Demsrule86 Oct 2022 #13

any paper that has Maggie Haberman on its payroll agingdem Oct 2022 #22

What's the deal with her? Iris Oct 2022 #43

And you can see by the ethnicity %s that it's HEAVILY skewed toward White voters peppertree Oct 2022 #17

When I saw that big shift in Independent women mcar Oct 2022 #33

792 Does not bode well, but... reACTIONary Oct 2022 #42

But look at that younger group! True Blue American Oct 2022 #50

Morning Consult is a rolling, ongoing poll with large samples and a small margin of error lees1975 Oct 2022 #11

Remember Dick Morris? lees1975 Oct 2022 #12

"Remember Dick Morris?" I remember Gallup BumRushDaShow Oct 2022 #28

Ground game. N/t ColinC Oct 2022 #14

Definitely mcar Oct 2022 #34

Morning Consult is a credible poll. calimary Oct 2022 #15

Honestly, those polls agree with each other. BlueCheeseAgain Oct 2022 #18

Point being it makes no sense to focus on only one poll mcar Oct 2022 #35

We're in the pollercoaster phase of the midterms peggysue2 Oct 2022 #19

Amazing how so many people on DU love polls in our favor, yet get all conspiratorial when... Silent3 Oct 2022 #21

+1 Laura PourMeADrink Oct 2022 #25

538 scipan Oct 2022 #30

The lower numbers are the latest updates Polybius Oct 2022 #45

I take all polls with a grain of salt. Elessar Zappa Oct 2022 #31

Point being it makes no sense to focus on only one poll mcar Oct 2022 #36

That's one of the points, yes... Silent3 Oct 2022 #37

GOTV people! EVERYWHERE! SEND EVERYONE! ZonkerHarris Oct 2022 #23

Blue Tsunami !!! Sogo Oct 2022 #26

So there's Hope.. I ran Cha Oct 2022 #29

I'm with you, Cha! BlueMTexpat Oct 2022 #47

A recent poll determined that many people don't believe recent polls. twodogsbarking Oct 2022 #38

... mcar Oct 2022 #39

Dems in disarray! Strelnikov_ Oct 2022 #40

538 and cook are pushing last January's "red wave" narrative The_Casual_Observer Oct 2022 #44

Saw that yesterday. Gotta maintain the horse race narrative, after all. Beartracks Oct 2022 #51

K&R betsuni Oct 2022 #46

**MC UNWEIGHTED MARGINE OF ERROR IS 2%!!** NYT more was 4% !!! NYT should have NEVER EVER uponit7771 Oct 2022 #52

The massive early turnout in Georgia may be the bellweather. The Jungle 1 Oct 2022 #53

Make it so, DU. GOTV. FSogol Oct 2022 #58