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FBaggins

(28,706 posts)

16. Not really true

Reply to samsingh (Original post)

Sat Oct 22, 2022, 11:59 AM

Oct 2022

Some pollsters report LV throughout the cycle… some report adults/registered/likely and don’t switch.

Just as importantly… the switch to LV usually happens in mid September (for those pollsters that actually switch) - which was our strongest point of the cycle. So it doesn’t explain the recent change of apparent momentum.

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The polsters always start polling registered voters-then switch the model by reporting likely voters [View all] samsingh Oct 2022 OP

And this year, LV polls are likely to miss most of the masses of new registrants. Nt Fiendish Thingy Oct 2022 #1

I was thinking the same thing TexasBushwhacker Oct 2022 #4

Doubtful Abnredleg Oct 2022 #5

Not all pollsters screen LVs this way Fiendish Thingy Oct 2022 #9

Then new voters would by definition not be likely voters Abnredleg Oct 2022 #10

The NYT poll only sampled 792 people mostly men IINM uponit7771 Oct 2022 #11

Correct Abnredleg Oct 2022 #15

An all women poll would be nice eh? pwb Oct 2022 #2

Every poll provides cross tabs that break out opinions by sex. brooklynite Oct 2022 #6

Every Poll Doe NOT Provide Cross Tabs - That's Part of the Problem Indykatie Oct 2022 #8

RIGHT !?!? MSM, 538 & RCP should have the rule; no cross tabs no legitimacy uponit7771 Oct 2022 #12

95 women, MOE 10 points mcar Oct 2022 #13

Also, data for likely voters firm up as elections approach and then are on us. Hortensis Oct 2022 #3

I agree karynnj Oct 2022 #7

Recent polls have not been kind to Dems so we better hope actual turnout resembles registered voters LonePirate Oct 2022 #14

Not really true FBaggins Oct 2022 #16