Nevada Democrats are in trouble. [View all]

[RandySF]

The regional breakdowns don’t help much. Clark is only 68.5 percent of the vote, which is two and a half points below its actual percentage. But the rurals also are below their 12.2 percent by half a point. Washoe is over-performing and is 3.5 percent above its reg at 19.9 percent of the turnout.

The 21,3000-ballot lead the Repubs have in the rurals right now (especially if you extrapolate to what it translates into in votes) just about wipes out the Clark Dem firewall, so if Washoe leans one way or another, it could decide the fate of most statewide races.

I’ll keep an eye on those numbers, too. The larger the percentage of turnout Clark is, even with a more porous firewall, the better for Dems; the smaller it is, and if the rurals go up, the better for Repubs. I’d guess Washoe will be close either way – it leans Dem in turnout now, but just barely – and if it’s not, that will change everything. (Remember that Democrats Jacky Rosen and Steve Sisolak won Washoe last midterm; I am not so sure Sisolak and CCM can do the same this time.)

Reminder of turnout past four cycles and why turnout as low as 50 percent could be just what the GOP craves, all other thing be equal and they just don't seem to be in this apple year.




https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-2022