General Discussion

Efilroft Sul

(4,386 posts)

29. For what it's worth, let's factor in the weather.

Tue Nov 8, 2022, 03:57 PM

Nov 2022

Weather across the contiguous states has been generally good, which always helps with Democratic turnout. My only areas of concern where Democrats are viable are California and western Nevada receiving rain and snow, plus Minnesota and Wisconsin experiencing rain now and throughout the rest of the day.

Back to Katie in the studio.

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Final 538 House and Senate predictions [View all] Polybius Nov 2022 OP

'Muerica is so f'd up! Dave says Nov 2022 #1

FYI Botany Nov 2022 #2

THANK YOU!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! secondwind Nov 2022 #3

Nate Silver knows about their fake polls Polybius Nov 2022 #6

Not buying it. SheltieLover Nov 2022 #4

Not happening...538 knows they have shit righty polls in their agregates... Demsrule86 Nov 2022 #5

See post #6 Polybius Nov 2022 #7

But not really- did he adjust the 538 model? Fiendish Thingy Nov 2022 #22

I won't forget when Silver, on the basis of two small states' vote, predicted a Bernie sweep of emmaverybo Nov 2022 #36

The trolls are very busy today ItsjustMe Nov 2022 #8

Trolls have low post counts Polybius Nov 2022 #9

Some have thousands of posts. Kingofalldems Nov 2022 #18

Trolls don't survive that long Polybius Nov 2022 #20

Indeed. W_HAMILTON Nov 2022 #25

Is Earl G a troll to you too? iemanja Nov 2022 #31

538's numbers are based on the flood of R polls in the past few weeks Fiendish Thingy Nov 2022 #10

See post #6 Polybius Nov 2022 #12

See post #22 Fiendish Thingy Nov 2022 #26

He weighs polls according to reliability iemanja Nov 2022 #32

But that adjusted weighting was manipulated too Fiendish Thingy Nov 2022 #35

Because you saw a piece on cable TV telling you so? iemanja Nov 2022 #37

I do have graduate level training in research analysis Fiendish Thingy Nov 2022 #39

Can you explain the evidence to me? iemanja Nov 2022 #41

Go to 538, pick a race, and look at the dates and sources of the data Fiendish Thingy Nov 2022 #44

I went to the Walker / Warnock race iemanja Nov 2022 #46

To get the full view of the flood of polls, you have to drill down further than the first page Fiendish Thingy Nov 2022 #47

There is one other of the polls you mentioned among the full array of polls iemanja Nov 2022 #48

Thanks for your clarifying and thoughtful posts on this. nt. emmaverybo Nov 2022 #38

I love it, gab13by13 Nov 2022 #11

I think there's an excellent chance we'd both be out $100 Polybius Nov 2022 #14

538 gave Clinton a 71% chance of winning in 2016, so there's that. Ocelot II Nov 2022 #13

Super true Polybius Nov 2022 #16

Popular RobinA Nov 2022 #23

Silvers predicted Hillary would win.. Peacetrain Nov 2022 #15

Yes he did, with a 71% chance Polybius Nov 2022 #17

And she had a majority of the votes iemanja Nov 2022 #33

This is a pretty half assed nothing prediction from those guys. Might as not even wasted their time. The_Casual_Observer Nov 2022 #19

I Think They're RobinA Nov 2022 #24

Hoping but not expecting great results. underpants Nov 2022 #21

MSM did not bother to report widely enough that gas prices went down, down, down. Pre-inflation, emmaverybo Nov 2022 #43

McMullin winning in Utah will screw Nate's numbers up. aeromanKC Nov 2022 #27

Then I need to make out a last will and testament misanthrope Nov 2022 #28

For what it's worth, let's factor in the weather. Efilroft Sul Nov 2022 #29

I expect to lose the house.. that is fairly normal in a mid term littlewolf Nov 2022 #30

I've put the alcohol and mixer in the fridge iemanja Nov 2022 #34

I'm getting drunk either way Polybius Nov 2022 #40

Same. Elessar Zappa Nov 2022 #45

538: Hillary in a landslide! Nuff said about the cred of 538. beaglelover Nov 2022 #42

Oops---looks like a big GOP fail. Kingofalldems Nov 2022 #49