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Fiendish Thingy

(22,719 posts)

17. By "they", I'm assuming you mean the GOP

Reply to iemanja (Reply #9)

Tue Nov 8, 2022, 04:43 PM

Nov 2022

Yes, while everyone was looking for a single incident “October surprise”, the GOP was providing a string of surprises with a flood of polls from Trafalgar, Rasmussen, Insider Advantage and other Republican sponsored polling outfits that provided outlier (Walker beating Warnock by +6? Seriously?) results compared to the very few polls by reputable nonpartisan polling outlets released in the last couple of weeks of October.

And 538 and the majority of the news media fell for it, gobbled up 538’s corrupted averages, and unquestioningly regurgitated the GOP’s desired narrative.

That is some Roger Stone on steroids level ratfucking right there.

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Nate Silver puts 538's reputation on the line with last minute hedging and a shrug. [View all] Fiendish Thingy Nov 2022 OP

You'll find out in a few hours iemanja Nov 2022 #1

I'm not complaining about specific polls Fiendish Thingy Nov 2022 #2

No, you're complaining about all the polls iemanja Nov 2022 #3

You seem to be ignoring the fact that the GOP deliberately manipulated polling averages Fiendish Thingy Nov 2022 #4

I don't buy it iemanja Nov 2022 #9

By "they", I'm assuming you mean the GOP Fiendish Thingy Nov 2022 #17

Most polls are well within the margin of error iemanja Nov 2022 #11

Yes DLCWIdem Nov 2022 #15

I think it will be more like a few days MiniMe Nov 2022 #6

Don't think so Wibly Nov 2022 #12

That's how I've felt for the last week or more. Hassin Bin Sober Nov 2022 #19

No we won't inthewind21 Nov 2022 #21

I stopped following him after 2018 budkin Nov 2022 #5

Yes. LakeArenal Nov 2022 #7

I agree gab13by13 Nov 2022 #14

I have ignored 538 for several years now... CousinIT Nov 2022 #8

538 was actually the MOST accurate in 2016 Fiendish Thingy Nov 2022 #18

I get why. Trafalgar Group is 100% a Republican pollster. Beautiful Disaster Nov 2022 #10

Likely voter models are always more accurate, no matter who does them. SlimJimmy Nov 2022 #13

Except this cycle, LV models could be way, way off. Fiendish Thingy Nov 2022 #20

Half of registered voters don't vote. SlimJimmy Nov 2022 #30

Plenty of LV models were off in 2020. Beautiful Disaster Nov 2022 #26

Trafalgar has a method of finding voters that don't respond to other pollsters. SlimJimmy Nov 2022 #28

I am not saying they don't - I am saying other LV models have been way off. Beautiful Disaster Nov 2022 #29

I'm not saying fully accurate, I'm saying more accurate than using registered voters as the model. SlimJimmy Nov 2022 #31

It's a pointless point, tho, because no one is talking RV models. Beautiful Disaster Nov 2022 #32

RV polls were used by polling companies as late as last week. SlimJimmy Nov 2022 #35

A broken clock is right twice a day Deminpenn Nov 2022 #25

It's very possible you're right. Beautiful Disaster Nov 2022 #27

Trafalgar credibility question? ThunderRoad Nov 2022 #33

Trafalgar has gotten 66% of their races right -- that's terrible. W_HAMILTON Nov 2022 #34

Here is what I have to say about the polls gab13by13 Nov 2022 #16

he makes his living off polls - what else is he going to do? getagrip_already Nov 2022 #22

2008 seems like such a long time ago. BannonsLiver Nov 2022 #23

He's so yesterday. nolabear Nov 2022 #24