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Fiendish Thingy

(22,729 posts)

20. Except this cycle, LV models could be way, way off.

Reply to SlimJimmy (Reply #13)

Tue Nov 8, 2022, 04:48 PM

Nov 2022

First of all polling response rates have dropped below 1% (was 30% in early 2000’s); in addition many new registrants and first time voters get excluded from LV screens, and this cycle appears to have a larger than usual share of first time voters,

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Nate Silver puts 538's reputation on the line with last minute hedging and a shrug. [View all] Fiendish Thingy Nov 2022 OP

You'll find out in a few hours iemanja Nov 2022 #1

I'm not complaining about specific polls Fiendish Thingy Nov 2022 #2

No, you're complaining about all the polls iemanja Nov 2022 #3

You seem to be ignoring the fact that the GOP deliberately manipulated polling averages Fiendish Thingy Nov 2022 #4

I don't buy it iemanja Nov 2022 #9

By "they", I'm assuming you mean the GOP Fiendish Thingy Nov 2022 #17

Most polls are well within the margin of error iemanja Nov 2022 #11

Yes DLCWIdem Nov 2022 #15

I think it will be more like a few days MiniMe Nov 2022 #6

Don't think so Wibly Nov 2022 #12

That's how I've felt for the last week or more. Hassin Bin Sober Nov 2022 #19

No we won't inthewind21 Nov 2022 #21

I stopped following him after 2018 budkin Nov 2022 #5

Yes. LakeArenal Nov 2022 #7

I agree gab13by13 Nov 2022 #14

I have ignored 538 for several years now... CousinIT Nov 2022 #8

538 was actually the MOST accurate in 2016 Fiendish Thingy Nov 2022 #18

I get why. Trafalgar Group is 100% a Republican pollster. Beautiful Disaster Nov 2022 #10

Likely voter models are always more accurate, no matter who does them. SlimJimmy Nov 2022 #13

Except this cycle, LV models could be way, way off. Fiendish Thingy Nov 2022 #20

Half of registered voters don't vote. SlimJimmy Nov 2022 #30

Plenty of LV models were off in 2020. Beautiful Disaster Nov 2022 #26

Trafalgar has a method of finding voters that don't respond to other pollsters. SlimJimmy Nov 2022 #28

I am not saying they don't - I am saying other LV models have been way off. Beautiful Disaster Nov 2022 #29

I'm not saying fully accurate, I'm saying more accurate than using registered voters as the model. SlimJimmy Nov 2022 #31

It's a pointless point, tho, because no one is talking RV models. Beautiful Disaster Nov 2022 #32

RV polls were used by polling companies as late as last week. SlimJimmy Nov 2022 #35

A broken clock is right twice a day Deminpenn Nov 2022 #25

It's very possible you're right. Beautiful Disaster Nov 2022 #27

Trafalgar credibility question? ThunderRoad Nov 2022 #33

Trafalgar has gotten 66% of their races right -- that's terrible. W_HAMILTON Nov 2022 #34

Here is what I have to say about the polls gab13by13 Nov 2022 #16

he makes his living off polls - what else is he going to do? getagrip_already Nov 2022 #22

2008 seems like such a long time ago. BannonsLiver Nov 2022 #23

He's so yesterday. nolabear Nov 2022 #24