Katie Porter needs some positive vibes!

[Celerity]

83. NY did not drop the ball, they were fucked over by the system that Cuomo rammed into place

years ago as part of his never ending quest for power concentration and wars with the libs/progs.

He is one of the big legitimate targets of blame if/when we lose the House.

The 2014 NY Constitutional redistricting change was a Cuomo-led dodgy gambit:

https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/what-went-wrong-new-yorks-redistricting

In 2014, one of Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s signature accomplishments was the passage of a constitutional amendment that changed the way the state’s political maps are drawn. Instead of the legislature drawing maps, a bipartisan advisory commission would draw maps in the first instance for consideration by the legislature. The amendment also for the first time created legally enforceable protections in state law against partisan gerrymandering.

At the time, Cuomo boasted that the amendment would “permanently reform the redistricting process in New York to once and for all end self-interested partisan gerrymandering.”

New York’s experience contrasts with that of states with more robust reforms like California and Michigan, where maps passed on a bipartisan basis (unanimously in California) and were upheld by courts. Here’s a look at three reasons why the New York process produced less than optimal results.

The 2014 New York reforms did not create a truly independent redistricting process.

Ultimately, most of the problems with how New York’s redistricting played out lie in the design of the 2014 reforms. Despite being described in New York law as “independent,” the changes in reality resulted in a process that remains far more open to political manipulation and is far less independent than those of states that adopted more comprehensive reforms.

Cuomo also prevented Dem control of the NY Senate for years with his Independent Democratic Conference (IDC) scheme. The IDC was a group of members of the New York State Senate from the Democratic Party who were elected as Democrats but formed a coalition to give the Republicans the majority in the chamber.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Independent_Democratic_Conference

Founded January 5, 2011
Dissolved April 16, 2018

Split from Democratic Party of New York
Merged into Democratic Party of New York

Ideology Modern liberalism
Conservative liberalism

Seats in the State Senate (at dissolution)
8 / 63

The Independent Democratic Conference (IDC) was a group of members of the New York State Senate from the Democratic Party who were elected as Democrats but formed a coalition to give the Republicans the majority in the chamber, and attempted to create an independent caucus or a third caucus in the New York State Senate or a third party in the State of New York and prevent the Republican Party from gerrymandering the state senate districts of the 8 IDC members. At the time of its dissolution, the IDC included eight members: Jeffrey D. Klein, Marisol Alcantara, Tony Avella, David Carlucci, Jesse Hamilton, Jose Peralta, Diane Savino, and David Valesky.

Klein, Savino, Valesky, and Carlucci formed the IDC in 2011 due to disagreements with John L. Sampson, the Democratic leader in the New York State Senate. The IDC allied itself with Senate Republicans throughout its existence. During the 2013–14 legislative session, the IDC and the Senate Republican Conference controlled the Senate jointly, as the Senate Republicans did not have sufficient numbers to form a governing majority on their own.

snip

In the November 2012 elections, Democrats won a majority of seats in the State Senate. Following the election, the IDC formed a bipartisan coalition with the Senate Republican Conference that enabled the two conferences to control the Senate despite the Democrats' numerical majority. Under their power-sharing arrangement, the IDC and the Senate Republicans agreed to " decide what bills [would] reach the Senate floor each day of the session", would "dole out committee assignments", would "have the power to make appointments to state and local boards", and would "share negotiations over the state budget". Klein and Skelos also agreed that the title of Senate President would shift back and forth between the two of them every two weeks. Additionally, Simcha Felder, a Democratic senator-elect, announced he would caucus with the Republicans.

In December 2012, the IDC recruited Malcolm Smith to join its ranks. This move was part of a failed attempt by Smith to secure the Republican Party nomination in the New York City mayoral election; Smith was indicted on federal corruption charges, which led to his expulsion from the IDC on April 14, 2013, and his eventual conviction. On February 26, 2014, Tony Avella left the Senate Democratic Conference to join the IDC.

Governor Andrew Cuomo was actively involved in the formation of the conference, encouraging it to maintain Republican leadership of the chamber and providing tactical advice in order to keep more liberal New York City Democrats out of power.

And he DID pack the courts with conservatives.

The former governor stacked New York’s highest court with conservatives who hijacked the state’s redistricting process.

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2022/11/2022-midterms-new-york-republicans-cuomo-maloney.html

A year ago, Democrats were wise to the possibility that the midterms might get ugly, but they had high hopes for New York. Red states across the country were redrawing voting districts to a new extreme, shoring up congressional advantages for their party. New York, it seemed, could do the same for Democrats—make the state even bluer, a competitive rejoinder to a redistricting cycle that seemed certain to play to Republicans’ advantage.

The year 2021 marked the first time in a century that the New York Democrats had total control of state government, giving them unimpeded power in redistricting. Party leaders “optimistically predicted that new district lines could safeguard Democrats and imperil as many as five Republican seats,” noted the New York Times. Rumors circulated that Dems could lock in as much as a 23 to 3 advantage. Today, all of that seems like a far-off fantasy.

A startling nine of New York’s 26 congressional seats are currently in play for the GOP; party leaders are flocking to the state to help campaign for Democrats holding on by a thread. Jill Biden announced Thursday that she would campaign for one such Democrat, Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney, who opted to run in an easier, bluer district and was put in charge of House Democrats’ entire national reelection apparatus, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. He’s now on the ropes.

What the hell happened here? And who’s to blame?

Luckily, there’s an easy answer for the last question: Look no further than erstwhile Democratic governor Andrew Cuomo.

If Cuomo is known for anything beyond his miscreant behavior in office, it should be for his willingness to abet the state’s conservative forces for his personal gain, often to his own party’s disadvantage. Nowhere was this more obvious than his judicial appointments, where Cuomo routinely elevated conservative appointees—gleefully scoring points against his progressive opponents in Albany and New York City by moving the judicial branch rapidly to the right.

snip

His never-ending quest for power concentration and hatred of the NYC+ liberal/prog block in the 2 statehouse chambers, especially the Senate, his dodgy, so-called independent redistricting schemes, and his conservative court packing could likely be the coups de grâce that end up costing us control of the US House in 2022.

The original Dem map (26 seats, NY lost one seat to redistricting due to a TINY few thousand falling short in population)

in NY was

23-3 Dem favouring

21-5 strong Dem favouring

If we lose NY-22 (not looking good at all)

the final results will be a disastrous

15 Dem 11 Rethug

so a net swing loss of 12 to 16 seats (6 to 8 loss for us, 6 to 8 gain for the Rethugs)