Larry Sabato: "Georgia Runoff to Leans Democratic" [View all]

[brooklynite]

With the runoff set for tomorrow, most indicators point to a Warnock advantage. In fact, considering the national environment that ultimately materialized this cycle — one where Senate Democrats exceeded expectations — it would not be shocking if Warnock ends up improving on the 51%-49% margin he notched almost 2 years ago.

Since November’s election, a handful of runoff polls have been released. Warnock has posted small leads in nearly all of them. In the initial round, polling aggregates slightly overstated Walker, suggesting that he’d place first but would take below 50%.

Democrats are also outspending Republicans — an internal Walker memo claims that their side had been outspent roughly 2-to-1 since November. While the race hasn’t been as expensive as the 2021 contest between then-Sen. David Perdue (R-GA) and now-Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA), Georgia is again set to host the most expensive Senate race of the cycle.

Finally, what may be the most concrete evidence for a Warnock advantage is the composition of the early vote. Despite an abbreviated timeframe, the runoff has seen robust early turnout. As of Sunday night, close to 1.9 million Georgians had cast an early ballot, a number that is 47% of the total count that last month’s general election saw (this is mostly in-person early voting but that tally also includes some mail-in votes).

https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/georgia-runoff-to-leans-democratic/