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LonePirate

(14,379 posts)

25. The Repub candidate will win 46-48% of the vote at a minimum

Fri Dec 9, 2022, 11:18 AM

Dec 2022

If Sinema - being the incumbent with name recognition - siphons off a small percentage of votes from Democrats (or vice versa), the Repub candidate will win.

Republicans are not going to vote en masse for Sinema over a named Republican. Look how many voted for Lake and Masters against Hobbs and Kelly, both far superior choices than Sinema.

Repubs win a three party race for her seat.

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I think Sinema just made it harder for Arizona Dems to get rid of her [View all] In It to Win It Dec 2022 OP

I think it's as likely whatever votes qazplm135 Dec 2022 #1

That she did. A Dem cannot win a three candidate race in AZ if she is also in the race. LonePirate Dec 2022 #2

What percentage of Democrats would vote for her over the democratic candidate ? JI7 Dec 2022 #7

It would only take a point of two. jimfields33 Dec 2022 #12

Not necessarily. She'll complicate the race but remember... brush Dec 2022 #11

The Repub candidate will win 46-48% of the vote at a minimum LonePirate Dec 2022 #25

We'll see. Dems won the gov race, the senate race and... brush Dec 2022 #27

They ran against bad and batshit crazy candidates In It to Win It Dec 2022 #37

Insane magats are the repub party now. brush Dec 2022 #39

Yep. I think it was a crafty chess move. Liberal In Texas Dec 2022 #3

She was crafty enough to know the primary was hopeless. Bucky Dec 2022 #14

I appreciate your rationale. Let's see how it goes. Better Days Ahoy Dec 2022 #4

Okay atreides1 Dec 2022 #5

If she runs she will take away more republican voters than Dems! Emile Dec 2022 #6

I'd like to see some serious polling on that. n/t Liberal In Texas Dec 2022 #8

Me too. Because it makes sense! Emile Dec 2022 #9

I think this as well. FlyingPiggy Dec 2022 #41

Anyone who supports the Democrats will vote against her RAB910 Dec 2022 #10

Oh my God Bucky Dec 2022 #15

RIGHT !! Logically I see the democratic votes staying intact but I'm being told independence outnumb uponit7771 Dec 2022 #20

Mark Kelly, a very strong candidate bottomofthehill Dec 2022 #13

It's my belief many are voting for the GOP monsters because they have been brainwashed to hate Dems RAB910 Dec 2022 #23

Exactly my initial reaction. AZ is not turning redder, it's purple. She may help us more than hurt. lindysalsagal Dec 2022 #47

We just won the gov, senate and sec'y of state raves. brush Dec 2022 #40

Would you vote for a Independent who behaves like a Republican over a Democrat? Emile Dec 2022 #16

I would rather have the majority. A Dem isn't going to win comradebillyboy Dec 2022 #18

You didn't answer my question. Emile Dec 2022 #19

I have two R Senators-I would trade a Sinema for a Blackburn redstateblues Dec 2022 #21

Me too, but you failed to answer the question. Emile Dec 2022 #22

Hundreds of millions of dollars from small donors in AZ Roisin Ni Fiachra Dec 2022 #17

Sadly, you're probably right...nt Wounded Bear Dec 2022 #24

Yeah I think she will de facto be the Democratic candidate. David__77 Dec 2022 #26

Sinema was going to be primaried LetMyPeopleVote Dec 2022 #28

Maybe Biden should move her into cabinet level positions? imanamerican63 Dec 2022 #29

That would be great if she would take the job. Emile Dec 2022 #30

Make it an offer she can't refuse! imanamerican63 Dec 2022 #31

Arizona got the football Cardinals. GreenWave Dec 2022 #32

Your premise is based on the Dems keeping the Senate in trying to grantcart Dec 2022 #33

My premise is not based on keeping the Senate in 2024 In It to Win It Dec 2022 #34

Then your "make it harder for Dems to get rid of her" doesn't grantcart Dec 2022 #35

I said specifically "Arizona Dems" In It to Win It Dec 2022 #36

Sinema has virtually no support in the AZ Democratic party grantcart Dec 2022 #38

Concur. joshcryer Dec 2022 #48

Show me a list of all these Democrats who are going to vote for her. Please. ZonkerHarris Dec 2022 #42

The current voter registration statistics in AZ: Just A Box Of Rain Dec 2022 #43

You know there really are not any independent voters, right? ZonkerHarris Dec 2022 #44

In a three way race, Democrats would be in big trouble in AZ. Just A Box Of Rain Dec 2022 #46

This message was self-deleted by its author ZonkerHarris Dec 2022 #45