I think Sinema just made it harder for Arizona Dems to get rid of her

[In It to Win It]

36. I said specifically "Arizona Dems"

Sinema got some crossover support from anti-Trump GOP voters in 2018. I thought at the time, and still do, that she won because she got crossover support from the anti-crazy GOP voters along with moderates. I think any Democrat that runs in Arizona needs a slightly more broad support than just Democrats. They need some moderate independents to swing their way. They need a tiny sliver of moderate GOP voters to swing their way in Arizona.

In a race with a regular sane Republican (assuming that Republicans learn from their mistakes), who would that tiny sliver of moderate swingy voters choose? Would they swing to a more liberal Democrat that they're just now getting to know on a statewide level? or a moderate Dem-turned-Indie that they know?

Nobody knows. Since we are playing defense in 2024, which bet does the party in Arizona take? A Democrat-turned-Independent who would probably still vote with us 90% of the time? or a more liberal Democrat in Ruben Gallego? Would Sinema take that tiny 1% or 2% sliver of moderates that could help put Gallego over the top in the general election? You don't know what's the better option until the election is over. These Arizona elections have been pretty close. Based on what Arizona Dems know now, how exactly will they make the decision?