This post will be more serious than some of my recent ones.

[LonePirate]

6. If the first vote tomorrow fails, look for some horse trading to begin.

There are several Republicans who are moderates and/or represent districts that solidly backed Biden. It would be in their interest to vote for Jeffries either for ideological reasons or to help ensure some legislation gets passed so they are re-elected in 2024. I didn't think there was much chance of this happening today; but I think that chance rises to at least 25% on Wednesday.

However, it seems far more likely that a compromise Republican choice like Scalise will emerge who will pick off enough of those extremists to supplant McCarthy as Speaker. I suppose McCarthy might be engaging in some far-fetched deal making tonight to secure the votes even if it seemed like a lost cause today.

Whatever happens, McCarthy will be seen as ineffectual if not neutered and irrelevant after all of this even if he is chosen as Speaker. Any Republican alternative will have a massive headache on their hands dealing with those extremists and nothing of importance will get passed as they will destroy any chances they have of a majority in 2025.

If Jeffries can win over some moderate or Biden Republicans, there won't be much legislation passed apart from popular bipartisan bills and maybe continuing budget resolutions. Still, that's better for them and us than any of the alternatives.