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FakeNoose

(41,691 posts)

54. Many of us ignore polls - I can't help it, I've lived through too many elections

Reply to DestinyIsles (Original post)

Fri Jan 27, 2023, 08:19 PM

Jan 2023

On the other hand, I was very optimistic for a Dem sweep in Pennsylvania. We knew Josh Shapiro would beat Doug Mastriano. And there was no way John Fetterman (our newest Senator) would lose to Dr. Oz. Even in the smaller races many new Dems rode the coattails of Shapiro and Fetterman, which flipped the Pennsylvania House of Representatives to BLUE for the first time in 12 years.

It didn't matter to me what the national pollsters were saying. I knew what was happening in my home state.

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Nate Silver and FiveThirtyEight Are on ABC's Chopping Block [View all] DestinyIsles Jan 2023 OP

They are wonderful, actually. And will likely have no trouble finding another home. ColinC Jan 2023 #1

I disagree Fiendish Thingy Jan 2023 #7

It is a little odd to me. Happy Hoosier Jan 2023 #22

I disagree...Silver allowed the right wing to put fake poll out and acted like they were real. Demsrule86 Jan 2023 #33

Seems to.me that NPR lead the "Red Wave" was inevitable narrative The_Casual_Observer Jan 2023 #2

Mara Liasson has always been a right side hack.....in my humble opinion. Years ago when she a kennedy Jan 2023 #9

A pain in the ass that is shown too much respect. Her unfounded The_Casual_Observer Jan 2023 #12

I was unfamiliar with Mara Liasson, so looked her up- MerryBlooms Jan 2023 #32

If you are unfamiliar with Mara you are unfamiliar with the The_Casual_Observer Jan 2023 #49

Called it in real time. It was obvious. onecaliberal Jan 2023 #3

Hell, even I saw that the red wave was not materializing. Sky Jewels Jan 2023 #4

I saw it too and was ridiculed here and even my son gave me a hard time...his first words to Demsrule86 Jan 2023 #34

Haha, restraint can be tricky. Sky Jewels Jan 2023 #46

It's not as simple as Silver being a right wing tool Fiendish Thingy Jan 2023 #5

The only Senate seat that was off was NV, and even in that the Republican was barely leading Polybius Jan 2023 #6

They didn't predict it Sympthsical Jan 2023 #10

A red wave was predicted...because of deliberate right wing bullshit polls. It didn't happen and Demsrule86 Jan 2023 #37

Oh please there was no red wave and you posted that there would be...we gained a Senate seat! Demsrule86 Jan 2023 #35

I think you misunderstood me Polybius Jan 2023 #47

Good analysis, thanks n/t Just_Vote_Dem Jan 2023 #14

He is like 99% of the other people who break into the top echelon of corporate media Cosmocat Jan 2023 #16

The polls were not that far off. former9thward Jan 2023 #8

I have no idea where this "The polls were super wrong" narrative is coming from Sympthsical Jan 2023 #11

Because for weeks they predicted a huge red wave that never happened Just_Vote_Dem Jan 2023 #15

The media and the data are not the same things Sympthsical Jan 2023 #17

But the commentary IS the important thing Just_Vote_Dem Jan 2023 #18

But that's not what people are saying Sympthsical Jan 2023 #21

Preach it! inthewind21 Jan 2023 #50

"more than they were paying attention to the data and the facts." BumRushDaShow Jan 2023 #23

They also used YouGov and Morning Consult Sympthsical Jan 2023 #24

In response BumRushDaShow Jan 2023 #27

You explained it a lot better than me, thanks! Just_Vote_Dem Jan 2023 #28

You are welcome and that December DU OP on this 538 poll bias issue BumRushDaShow Jan 2023 #29

Very nice. scipan Jan 2023 #30

Thank you BumRushDaShow Jan 2023 #31

Races Called Correctly per FiveThirtyEight: W_HAMILTON Jan 2023 #53

This is an extremely dishonest use of statistics Sympthsical Jan 2023 #55

LOL! W_HAMILTON Jan 2023 #56

The data was the basis for the predictions...so please, take another look. Demsrule86 Jan 2023 #38

.it was the accompanying commentary that was relentlessly pushing The_Casual_Observer Jan 2023 #13

+1, thier analysis of the data was slanted uponit7771 Jan 2023 #26

The polls were completely off there was no red wave and only three times in history have we Demsrule86 Jan 2023 #36

Good BumRushDaShow Jan 2023 #19

Nate Silver is a right wing tool now. LOL Laura PourMeADrink Jan 2023 #20

Real Clear Politics is now funded by the righties. Demsrule86 Jan 2023 #39

Interesting. But jeez they just take numbers and crunch. Laura PourMeADrink Jan 2023 #40

He was either terribly incompetent or worse for going with RW fake pollsters in aggregates. themaguffin Jan 2023 #25

Hell it took us a while... Why would he be expected to Laura PourMeADrink Jan 2023 #41

Not instant, it's his stubborn stance when known. I'm not a Nate hater. I just think that was themaguffin Jan 2023 #44

Somehow ABC and 538 are affiliated. Haven't looked up how. Laura PourMeADrink Jan 2023 #48

Hmmm. Seems pretty forthright to me Laura PourMeADrink Jan 2023 #45

They have proof that Nate Silver Laura PourMeADrink Jan 2023 #42

Polls are always a gamble. ificandream Jan 2023 #43

In other news inthewind21 Jan 2023 #51

Good for them. I don't hold that much weight in them. ificandream Jan 2023 #52

Many of us ignore polls - I can't help it, I've lived through too many elections FakeNoose Jan 2023 #54