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Honeycombe8

(37,648 posts)

3. I thought it was going to be close. I have nothing to apologize for....

Sat Nov 10, 2012, 09:55 AM

Nov 2012

I thought he would win the popular vote by a bit, and I predicted a conservative 290 EVs, and admitted it was a conservative prediction.

I have nothing to apologize for. That was based on the polls. Obama did win the popular vote by a bit. And he got two states I wasn't counting on (but knew he MIGHT win, but I didn't include in my prediction AND he didn't need them to win)...VA and CO.

FL...I certainly didn't count on that, because it was so close, and remembering 2000. AND Obama didn't need it.

I have no more to apologize for than someone who predicted a landslide, which didn't happen.

I see myself as being correct, although not exact. I'm not a statistician, after all. Why the hard feelings against those who didn't predict the EXACT outcome? What's that all about?

Who laughed at you? Let's see some names.

(Let's not forget that Obama won decisively, but the battleground states he won...they were in fact narrow wins in many instances. He didn't win PA by as large a margin as we expected, or OH, or WI. My point was...a win is a win, and that was good enuf for me! And the data pointed to it. He had been leading in most of the battleground states for some time, as Silver pointed out. That spoke volumes to me.)

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It would be nice if those DUers who [View all] malaise Nov 2012 OP

They received a shellacking in the House vote too. Too bad for gerrymandering. JaneyVee Nov 2012 #1

+1 nt ProudProgressiveNow Nov 2012 #2

Yep - it's hilarious how they are now using the gerrymandering malaise Nov 2012 #13

I thought it was going to be close. I have nothing to apologize for.... Honeycombe8 Nov 2012 #3

No need for names malaise Nov 2012 #18

I went by data. Not pundits. Those who thought he'd win a landslide, that was wishful thinking Honeycombe8 Nov 2012 #26

The popular vote was not close at all malaise Nov 2012 #30

Yes. About 1.5%. I hadn't realized it had gone up that much from FL. Election night it was 1%.nt Honeycombe8 Nov 2012 #44

And still counting brush Nov 2012 #51

Let's see...the President wins by at least 3 mill pop vote and more than 100 EV.... OldDem2012 Nov 2012 #39

Adding a recent post by DUer Creek Dog.... OldDem2012 Nov 2012 #43

Well said. lalalu Nov 2012 #32

seems to me it WAS close hfojvt Nov 2012 #56

you can make a similar case for most elections InsultComicDog Nov 2012 #67

Many elections have been close hfojvt Nov 2012 #71

What would be the point? cynatnite Nov 2012 #4

I always thought that Obama would win...until Evergreen Emerald Nov 2012 #5

I'll happily admit I was wrong. I have no problem doing so. cali Nov 2012 #6

What is legitimacy? n/t malaise Nov 2012 #9

Uniform laws in each states, getting rid of Citizen's United cali Nov 2012 #14

No - legitimacy is the view of citizens that the government rightfully earned its right to rule malaise Nov 2012 #19

actually, what you suggest is simply one interpretation cali Nov 2012 #23

I said legitimate political system not malaise Nov 2012 #27

I hope (against hope?) that Congress tackles this issue. The RIGHT to vote EASILY Honeycombe8 Nov 2012 #31

I would opt to take Rick Hasen, professor of Law & Political Science BlueCaliDem Nov 2012 #52

I thought it was a slam dunk after the Dem Nat'l Convention. Then the 1st debate happened. Honeycombe8 Nov 2012 #11

Only the media could push the view that one debate could decide the plethora of issues malaise Nov 2012 #21

It wasn't the issues alone. It was performance. As Obama himself joked... Honeycombe8 Nov 2012 #22

Debate performance? malaise Nov 2012 #29

I seem to recall that Romney lied and flip-flopped constantly during that first debate..... OldDem2012 Nov 2012 #40

100% correct malaise Nov 2012 #41

Yes, Romney lied. But the fact is....Obama lost. Yes, Romney's a lying SOS.... Honeycombe8 Nov 2012 #46

I got it exactly right. Ikonoklast Nov 2012 #69

You weren't watching the same MSNBC I was watching during and after the 1st debate. Honeycombe8 Nov 2012 #47

Yes, I watched those screamers at MSNBC and was horrified by their bad behavior..... OldDem2012 Nov 2012 #57

Sigh. This isn't a controversy. Obama lost the 1st debate hands down. Honeycombe8 Nov 2012 #45

Yes, a debate is about DEBATING. It's not about fact checking... Honeycombe8 Nov 2012 #48

Hmmm. "It's not about fact checking"????.... OldDem2012 Nov 2012 #58

No. The PEOPLE decide who won. Not fact checkers afterwards. Millions decided Honeycombe8 Nov 2012 #63

IF a debate is not about fact cheking malaise Nov 2012 #62

The PEOPLE decide who won. If a debater lies, and the other debater doesn't call him on it... Honeycombe8 Nov 2012 #66

Here ya go. Funny stuff. Honeycombe8 Nov 2012 #50

Ignore. nt. OldDem2012 Nov 2012 #59

I know you can't see this, but for the record: If you can't take facts, why are you in a forum like Honeycombe8 Nov 2012 #60

... Safetykitten Nov 2012 #7

Good post malaise Nov 2012 #35

As for our political system being legitimate and always passing the test? NNN0LHI Nov 2012 #8

So there were three or four states with problems - serious electoral problems malaise Nov 2012 #24

I predicted lalalu Nov 2012 #10

Me, too. I just didn't dare dream he'd get over 300 EVs. But he didn't NEED to. Honeycombe8 Nov 2012 #15

DUer Statistical gave me some serious lessons malaise Nov 2012 #36

Maybe the credit goes to the voting public. Turbineguy Nov 2012 #12

Absolutely - they believed that if they turned out malaise Nov 2012 #33

I trusted Nate Silver and his numbers obamanut2012 Nov 2012 #16

People are not gullible malaise Nov 2012 #37

And, I think this election was a huge grassroots rising obamanut2012 Nov 2012 #49

In my heart of hearts I knew that we were going to prevail madokie Nov 2012 #17

I was calming folks here malaise Nov 2012 #38

About 2 weeks before the election DU was pervaded by paranoia KurtNYC Nov 2012 #20

And that is why we need this thread malaise Nov 2012 #25

It didn't "pass the test" in 2000. nt ladjf Nov 2012 #28

And Bush remained illegimate in the eyes of huge numbers because malaise Nov 2012 #34

Legitimate, but seriously flawed. redqueen Nov 2012 #42

Election integrity concerns were valid, in view of the MSM narrative hyping a big Romney win. proverbialwisdom Nov 2012 #53

I told everyone it was in the bag, and no need to vote jberryhill Nov 2012 #54

I agree with the view that caution is necessary and people should tell others malaise Nov 2012 #73

People get nervous in different ways jberryhill Nov 2012 #74

I thought the outcome became obvious during the Repub primaires. Tierra_y_Libertad Nov 2012 #55

I WAS wrong...I said he'd take North Carolina too. DonRedwood Nov 2012 #61

Sorry this isnt a sports event, no one needs to apologize to anyone else Marrah_G Nov 2012 #64

48% of America still voted for someone we laughed off the stage liberal_at_heart Nov 2012 #65

The "flaws" need to be fixed this time, however upi402 Nov 2012 #68

The hair on fire "we could lose" types got to me too. I was sick of their fear. nt bluestate10 Nov 2012 #70

Malaise, I'll tell you really got on my nerves here... PCIntern Nov 2012 #72

Very well said malaise Nov 2012 #75

To answer you last statement... PCIntern Nov 2012 #76

LOL malaise Nov 2012 #77

I think what bugged me the most were the hand ringers and nervous nellies.. DCBob Nov 2012 #78

I will confess that I was saying it would be "close" jimlup Nov 2012 #79

"Pathological Liars Rmoney and Ryan did not fool the American electorate" Iggy Nov 2012 #80