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In reply to the discussion: It would be nice if those DUers who [View all]Honeycombe8
(37,648 posts)and a "feeling." Like Romney's followers.
The data did not predict, to me, a likelihood of winning, say, Virginia. Romney had been leading in VA for some time. It was only the last day or two that Obama ticked ahead slightly in VA. So I didn't count it. I hoped, but didn't count it. He also didn't need it, so it wasn't very important to me. I didn't give VA a lot of thought, once I realized Obama would PROBABLY win. (I always still acknowledged, as Nate Silver did, that there was a POSSIBILITY of a Romney win.)
The popular vote WAS close. Which was my prediction, based on teh NATIONAL data. I never saw anything to indicate that Romney would win the popular vote, as pundits and media said.
I was pretty close. 290 EVs vs 303, on election night. I simply didn't count CO and VA because Romney had been leading there until late in the game, or in the case of CO, it would change frequently and always still be VERY close.
I was right, as I see it. My point was: he's been leading in almost all the battleground states for some time; therefore, he would win. The fact that someone else included a state I did not, or did not include a state that I did...minor points. A difference of a couple of states.