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Beautiful Disaster

(667 posts)

7. I think it's easy to explain.

Fri Jun 16, 2023, 08:50 PM

Jun 2023

Republicans will vote Republican no matter what. Most every poll that shows Trump beating Biden, Trump is still nowhere near 50%. Both Biden and Trump likely have a floor and no amount of scandal, corruption and craziness is going to change that floor.

The days of the landslide are over.

The Republican is a lock for 40% of the vote.
The Democrat is a lock for 40% of the vote.

The election will be won or lost with the other 20%.

My guess is that Biden gets a majority of that 20% and wins similarly to how he won in 2020.

Trump won 47% of the vote in 2020 - one-percent higher than in 2016 and pretty much identical to what Romney saw in 2012. Even going back to 2008, in the popular vote, Trump did only 1.1 points better than McCain and that was when the Republican brand was awful.

In today's era, a four-point win is a landslide.

Polls that show Trump winning all have very high undecided numbers. I feel pretty confident they'll break for Biden but it's easy to not say Biden this far out when literally nothing is on the line.

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BREAKING: DOLE LEADS CLINTON BY NINE IN NEW POLL FROM NEWSWEEK [View all] Beautiful Disaster Jun 2023 OP

Ha ha ha!! PortTack Jun 2023 #1

Didn't Newsweek come out with a poll that had Dubya 13 points ahead of Gore, with about 3 months lees1975 Jun 2023 #2

I think President Romney really benefited from that Dole victory EarlG Jun 2023 #3

That would have been so Cha Jun 2023 #8

+9 Takket Jun 2023 #4

LOL. I recall reading the DU DISMAY when Obama became the candidate... yes, there was DISMAY BlueWaveNeverEnd Jun 2023 #5

Yes I remember that..................... Lovie777 Jun 2023 #12

And I also recall reading the DU JOY when Obama became the candidate speak easy Jun 2023 #20

I remember that, too DFW Jun 2023 #25

August 25, 2008. One month before Lehman failed. speak easy Jun 2023 #26

What's troubling about early polls showing Trump beating Biden isn't their predictive power Silent3 Jun 2023 #6

I think it's easy to explain. Beautiful Disaster Jun 2023 #7

That "easy to explain" situation is what's troubling Silent3 Jun 2023 #11

There's only a speck of doubt because of the partisan nature of the US. Beautiful Disaster Jun 2023 #13

I'm not counting on anything except stupidity and ignorance Silent3 Jun 2023 #24

I think 2016 was a massive anomaly election. Beautiful Disaster Jun 2023 #27

(clutches pearls).... Blue Owl Jun 2023 #9

Billy-boy however was a master at shaping narratives, radius777 Jun 2023 #10

Bill was so good at shaping the narrative that he failed to win a majority in either election Beautiful Disaster Jun 2023 #14

Only because Perot ran and took a chunk of the vote in '92 and '96. radius777 Jun 2023 #15

Clinton spent most his first term with similarly low approval as Biden. Beautiful Disaster Jun 2023 #23

Heinrich Himmler would get at least 40% in the polls if he ran as a GOPer... First Speaker Jun 2023 #16

He would probably get more than that SouthernDem4ever Jun 2023 #17

nice prodigitalson Jun 2023 #18

I mean ... I get the sentiment but 95 v. 23 is apples and oranges. There was a smidge of sanity then HardPort Jun 2023 #19

I'm with Joe orangecrush Jun 2023 #21

Point to you! ☝️ dchill Jun 2023 #22