Another TFG Rally-we get to laugh at his supporters yet again

[LetMyPeopleVote]

7. Nate Silver-Fine, I'll run a regression analysis. But it won't make you happy.

Link to tweet

https://www.natesilver.net/p/fine-ill-run-a-regression-analysis

But OK, fine, let’s do this properly. Let’s run a regression analysis, which is a technique to decompose the effect of different variables. First, as a baseline, let’s run a simple, one-variable regression to back up my claim that state partisanship predicts COVID death rates.


In this specification, covid_deaths_late is the number of COVID deaths per 1M residents (source) since Feb. 1, 2021 (I chose this date in Friday’s post since it approximates when COVID vaccines became widely available to vulnerable groups.) Meanwhile, biden is Joe Biden’s margin of victory or defeat against Donald Trump in 2020 (source). You can see that biden is very strongly and statistically significantly predictive of COVID death rates since 2/1/2021. The larger Biden’s margin of victory, the lower the COVID death rate. Note, again, that this wasn’t true in the early days of COVID; it’s only been true since the vaccines became available.