Nate Silver ~ Democrats Unlikely to Regain House in 2014

[ProSense]

25. Democrats actually did well all things considered, meaning gerrymandering

House of Representatives roundup: we friggin kicked tail on Tuesday

by litho

I was just perusing pollster's breakdown of the current state of the House of Representatives in the incoming Congress, and in light of comments coming from the GOP that the elections changed nothing the results are really quite astonishing. Yes, it's true that we currently have a Democratic president and Senate and a Republican House, and that we will continue to have those in the 113th Congress, but the contours of all those branches will be dramatically different. We all know about the upgrade in the Senate, adding two seats to the Dem side and replacing conservative senators with substantially more progressive ones (especially my own Elizabeth Warren and Wisconsin's Tammy Baldwin). In the House, as well, our accomplishments on Tuesday, while not enough to restore the gavel to Nancy Pelosi, were nothing short of remarkable.

On the other side, details and analysis from pollster's current info...

Prior to the election, pollster identified 72 House races as "competitive," and it broke down those races as follows:

Strong Dem: 10
Lean Dem: 16
Tossup: 17
Lean GOP: 20
Strong GOP: 19

Today, all but six of those races have been decided. Two of the undecideds were lean Dem, three were tossups, and one was lean GOP, and as of the moment, the Democratic candidate is leading in all of them. Let's assume the Dems all hold to win, in order to assess the accuracy of pollster's predictions.

First, all the strong Dems held onto their seats, as did all the strong GOPs. Furthermore, all of the lean Dem (including AZ-02 and AZ-09, where Dems lead as the count continues) also went, or probably will go, to the Democrats. So far, it looks good both for the Dems and for pollster's predictions.

Surprises start to appear in the tossup category. Including the three outstanding races where Dems lead (CA-07, CA-52, and NC-07), Dems look to take 12 of the 15 races in this category, or 80% of the tossups. Not bad for a gerrymandered Congress!

Wonders do not cease, however, because Dems performed well even in the lean GOP category, taking five of those twenty seats (including Murphy's likely victory over West in FL-18).

If the Dems do pick up all those outstanding races, then the House of Representatives in the 113th Congress will be composed of 201 Democrats against 234 Republicans. This is against the 112th Congress, which began with 242 Republicans and 193 Democrats and currently has 240 Republicans and 190 Democrats.

If Boehner thinks he has a mandate to oppose the people's will, he's got another think coming. We kicked tail on Tuesday, and if they stand in our way we'll kick their tail again in 2014. The Democratic Party is ascendant, and it's time to pass the laws our country so sorely needs -- on climate, on deficits, on entitlements, on defense, and on labor. The Republicans will work with us, or they will watch from outside as we remake the country.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/11/11/1160341/-House-of-Representatives-roundup-we-friggin-kicked-tail-on-Tuesday