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ExWhoDoesntCare

(4,741 posts)
9. BS
Sun Nov 12, 2023, 06:37 PM
Nov 2023

Going to Wisconsin wouldn't have changed anything. It's already been demonstrated that visiting a state only occasionally improves a candidate's results in a state.

Really.


Abstract

Hillary Clinton’s failure to visit the key battleground state of Wisconsin in 2016 has become a popular metaphor for the alleged strategic inadequacies of her presidential campaign. Critics who cite this fact, however, make two important assumptions: that campaign visits are effective, in general, and that they were effective for Clinton in 2016. I test these assumptions using an original database of presidential and vice presidential campaign visits in 2016. Specifically, I regress party vote share on each candidate’s number of campaign visits, at the county level, first for all counties located within battleground states, and then for counties located within each of six key battleground states: Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. The results of this analysis do not clearly support either of the assumptions made by Clinton’s critics. In general, none of the presidential or vice presidential candidates – including Clinton – significantly influenced voting via campaign visits. However, Clinton is one of only two candidates – along with Mike Pence, in Ohio – whose campaign visits had a significant effect on voting in an individual state. Specifically, Clinton’s visits to Pennsylvania improved the Democratic ticket’s performance in that state by 1.2 percentage points. Also, there is weak evidence to suggest that Clinton might have had a similar effect on voting in Michigan. It is unclear from this evidence whether Clinton also would have gained votes, or even won, in Wisconsin had she campaigned in that state. But two conclusions are clear. First, Clinton’s visits to Democratic-leaning battleground states did not have the “backfiring” effect that her campaign reportedly feared. Second, Donald Trump did not win in Pennsylvania, Michigan, or Wisconsin as a direct result of his campaign visits to those decisive states.


https://ecommons.udayton.edu/pol_fac_pub/116/

Recommendations

2 members have recommended this reply (displayed in chronological order):

Sure, vote for Jill Stein. [View all] Mr.Bill Nov 2023 OP
What term is that? Jail? getagrip_already Nov 2023 #1
Here in Wisconsin in '16, Stein received more votes than Trump's margin of victory, elocs Nov 2023 #2
Nader had a role maybe but what got Dumbya elected kwolf68 Nov 2023 #3
If Nader hadn't been a fool with an ego the size of the Twin Towers, it never would have.. Hekate Nov 2023 #5
How Florida Democrats torpedoed Gore (Slate Magazine - November 28, 2000) Celerity Nov 2023 #7
Whataboutism SocialDemocrat61 Nov 2023 #12
no Celerity Nov 2023 #16
Sorry you don't like the term SocialDemocrat61 Nov 2023 #18
disagree, but to each their own, cheers Celerity Nov 2023 #19
Hillary Clinton did run a piss-poor campaign. Biden has already been to Wisconsin several times now already. elocs Nov 2023 #6
BS ExWhoDoesntCare Nov 2023 #9
Thank you. Bookmarking. betsuni Nov 2023 #10
Then your argument is null as well TheProle Nov 2023 #11
I remember seeing an animated GIF of campaign stops from October 1 till Election Day 2016 Polybius Nov 2023 #14
I hate that argument edhopper Nov 2023 #15
Are there no TVs, computers, electronic devices, newspapers, books? Only way to know what a betsuni Nov 2023 #24
Well, I live in Wisconsin and it did make a difference to many elocs Nov 2023 #26
So inthewind21 Nov 2023 #36
I'm no fan of third parties, but the argument that they cost us the 2016 or 2000 elections Bucky Nov 2023 #28
And she's good buddies w Putin & Gen. Flynn💡 Hekate Nov 2023 #4
Russian Asset LetMyPeopleVote Nov 2023 #8
Message auto-removed Name removed Nov 2023 #27
In my circle I have more than a couple of Stein supporters Bucky Nov 2023 #30
I looked into the Greens and what I saw was lefties like me and huge component of right wingers ... marble falls Nov 2023 #31
Fuck that Putler lover. roamer65 Nov 2023 #13
_ LudwigPastorius Nov 2023 #17
See? Now that's funny! marble falls Nov 2023 #33
Who are you talking to? iemanja Nov 2023 #20
People with a sense of humor Mr.Bill Nov 2023 #21
Heh. betsuni Nov 2023 #25
There were some who were gullible enough to donate money to her for her fake recount. MichMan Nov 2023 #29
Every once in while we need a booster shot and a good laugh. marble falls Nov 2023 #32
Jill who ????????? End of story. DemocraticPatriot Nov 2023 #22
Yes, vote for Jill Stein if your objective is . . . peggysue2 Nov 2023 #23
Post about her so as to never accept her as harmless, and she provides laughs and giggles along the way. marble falls Nov 2023 #34
Stein is a Russian Asset LetMyPeopleVote Nov 2023 #35
Which makes all the donations she got from members here in 2016 even worse. MichMan Nov 2023 #37
Stein defrauded a ton of people in 2016 when she promised to contest the 2016 election LetMyPeopleVote Nov 2023 #38
Latest Discussions»General Discussion»Sure, vote for Jill Stein...»Reply #9