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[kurt_cagle]

112. Close, but with a few differences

New Hudson - NYC, New Jersey, Connecticut, Philadelphia, Eastern Great Lakes region
Appalachia - Runs along the northern edge of Dixie
Ubuntu (?) - May run along the southern coast of Dixie
Hawaii - Independent?

These are the geolinguistic boundaries of the US, reflecting original settlement patterns. Ecotopia is what most Northwesterners would call Cascadia. In my opinion, this represents the most likely distribution of countries by the year 2150 in North America.

In the novel I'm wrapping up (set about 2080) Dixie is called the Free Republic of America. The Islands are Caribbea, with the capital in Havana and Miami being its biggest city. I see Ubuntu being formed by former African Americans and running along the Mississippi river after a period of "ethnic cleansing" on the part of the Apartheid Whites in the eastern part of Dixie, but I'd say it's only about 40% likely that it would form as a distinct country. Mexico Norte I think is a near certainty, as is Cascadia and the FRA. New Hudson is possible - the history and politics of New York are VERY distinct from New England (which has Boston as its center), and I see the Canadian Maritimes (Labrador, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia) more likely to join with New England if Quebec becomes independent.

I also think that the FRA will attempt to capture Maryland and DC, if only because it gives this country a higher sense of legitimacy to hold the former US capital. New England, New Hudson, Quebec and Heartland may very well be a long-lived intermediate state. El Norte (Mexamerica) will extend down into Northern Mexico, and will be primarily Hispanic/Mestizo ancestry, corresponding more or less with the ancient Spanish empire. Cascadia is closest to New Hudson sensibilities, but the physical divide of the Western Confederacy and its proximity to China, Russia and Japan will make its existence a practical certainty.

I'm convinced that something like this will end up being the most stable distribution of companies. The US as it exists right now as highly unstable. I don't think it will hold its current form for more than perhaps 30-40 years on the outside.