More polls out showing Biden losing every swing state.

[LanguageLover]

82. Beg to disagree

I compiled the 538 Averages before the 2022 Elections. Some of the results were the following:

Senate Races
Maggie Hassan of NH Predicted to Win by 4% Won by 10% (+6% diff)
Fetterman of PA Predicted to LOSE by 1% Won by 5% (+6% diff)
Barnes of WI Predicted to LOSE by 5% Lost by 1% (+4% diff)
Warnock of GA Predicted to LOSE by 1% Won by 2% (+3% diff)
Bennet of CO Predicted to Win by 8% Won by 15% (+7% diff)

Governor Races
Shapiro of PA Predicted to Win by 10% Won by 15% (+5% diff)
Evers of WI Predicted to LOSE by 0.4% Won by 3.4% (+4% diff)

The Dems clearly outperformed the Polls in 2022 by about 3-7 percentage points.

538 predicted the Dems to have a 41% Chance of winning the Senate (meaning just 50-50).
The Dems won it 51-49, beating the prediction handsomely.

I had pointed it out last May in a post titled "What's Wrong with the Polls?"

Please note that if the poll predicts a 8% victory margin and finally it is 15%, then that was a bad poll !! If the poll predicted a loss by 5% and finally it is a loss by 1%, that too is a bad poll because it turned into a squeaker! As far as the "polls" are concerned, in all of the above cases cited the predictions were wrong. That's the way I look at it.