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In reply to the discussion: Romney is finished [View all]

grantcart

(53,061 posts)
42. Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaargh
Wed Dec 14, 2011, 07:44 PM
Dec 2011

This

is

my

point

Old system

gone

Here are the new rules

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Party_presidential_primaries,_2012#Ohio_Plan_proposal

Guidelines for primary and caucus dates

Based on a temporary committee's proposal, the Republican National Committee (RNC) adopted new rules for the timing of elections on August 6, 2010 with 103 votes in favor out of 144.[228] Under this plan, elections for delegates to the national convention were to be divided into three periods:[229]
February 1 – March 5, 2012: Contests of traditional early states Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina
March 6 – March 31, 2012: Contests that proportionally allocate delegates
April 1, 2012 and onward: All other contests including winner-take-all elections

By the fall of 2011, several states scheduled contests contravening this plan, pushing the primary calendar into January. These contests are in violation of RNC rules, with New Hampshire, South Carolina, Florida, Arizona, and Michigan set to be penalized with a loss of half of their delegates. As they are holding non-binding caucuses, Iowa, Colorado, Maine and Minnesota will not be automatically penalized, as their contests to bind national delegates are made later.[230]




so between March 6 -31 proportional how many could that be?

TWENTY ONE


Here they are

March 6


Alaska
Georgia
Idaho
Massachusetts
North Dakota
Oklahoma
Tennessee
Texas
Vermont
Virginia
Wyoming

March 10-13

Kansas
US Virgin Isl
Alabama
American Samoa
Hawaii
Missisippi

March 17 -24

Missouri
Puerto Rico
Illinoois
Lousiana


Last Huckabee didn't give up until they hit 51% and this time there will be no reason for anybody to stop, if they don't have much money they just can go and do cable.

If they keep it undecided they can go to the convention and wield more power, possible hold out for VP or a committment for a cabinet position. I am sure that Huntsman would love to be SOS and so on.

If you remember the Democratic Primary it remained very close when there were only two candidates. If there are three or more, and you have a large number of proportional selected delegates then it is virtually impossible to get 51% unless you take almost all of the winner take all primaries.

There are about 400 Super Delegates and all but about 20 of them are sitting on the sides, uncommitted.

http://www.democraticconventionwatch.com/diary/4726/republican-superdelegate-endorsement-list

Recommendations

0 members have recommended this reply (displayed in chronological order):

Romney is finished [View all] grantcart Dec 2011 OP
No one will be drafted from the floor. One of these clowns will emerge. And that's it. RBInMaine Dec 2011 #1
You are still operating on the old rules where a winner got all of the delegates. grantcart Dec 2011 #5
I'm not so sure. There's still plenty of time for Newt to implode. AtomicKitten Dec 2011 #2
He's a runaway train. A train that will go off the cliff, imo. n/t deacon Dec 2011 #13
Newtie will be AWOL* by April SpiralHawk Dec 2011 #15
Good synopsis Old and In the Way Dec 2011 #3
I disagree.... JohnnyRingo Dec 2011 #4
They have lots of people who look good in suits but don't have his baggage grantcart Dec 2011 #6
Agreed Sherman A1 Dec 2011 #9
I am all but certain it will go to the Convention. Firebrand Gary Dec 2011 #7
The 'fat lady' ain't even started yet! nt jannyk Dec 2011 #8
She's still gargling her lemon juice. Chipper Chat Dec 2011 #11
Yes probably so. SammyWinstonJack Dec 2011 #12
Who are the governors that have a shot? n/t RainDog Dec 2011 #10
They have 29 and they aren't all idiots grantcart Dec 2011 #21
When I hear Romney sendero Dec 2011 #14
Mr. Chairman, the Great State of Louisiana is proud to nominate Owlet Dec 2011 #16
The problem with Bobby Jindal is he isn't a very good orator. LAGC Dec 2011 #17
Just saw a couple of Ron Paul ads this morning that pick Newtie to pieces Skidmore Dec 2011 #18
FWIW, Intrade currently shows Romney at 49% and Newt at 32%. pampango Dec 2011 #19
But Romney was 70 just a few weeks ago and the key in a primary is momentum grantcart Dec 2011 #20
On Intrade, Romney seems to have regained momentum DavidDvorkin Dec 2011 #22
We definitely aren't looking at the same charts grantcart Dec 2011 #23
I've been watching the percentages on the main page DavidDvorkin Dec 2011 #24
Now I am confused when you hit on Gingrich's graph how do you conclude that he is slipping, grantcart Dec 2011 #25
There's an inconsistency there that confuses me DavidDvorkin Dec 2011 #27
And now it's Romney 52.9%, Gingrich 28.2% DavidDvorkin Dec 2011 #39
Right now on Intrade: Romney 61%, Gingrich 15% DavidDvorkin Dec 2011 #45
I still don't see a brokered covention sufrommich Dec 2011 #26
Let's ask it this way. Currently no candidate is getting more than 35% in any one primary. grantcart Dec 2011 #31
It would be very hard for it to stay a 3 way race though. sufrommich Dec 2011 #37
Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaargh grantcart Dec 2011 #42
This leads to an obvious question-- Jackpine Radical Dec 2011 #28
No because I don't think anybody in the primaries is going to be the nominee grantcart Dec 2011 #32
That's interesting speculation. Jackpine Radical Dec 2011 #38
I would look at this team grantcart Dec 2011 #43
The Republican machine is firing up behind Romney taught_me_patience Dec 2011 #29
Rick Perry, Mitt Romney internals show Newt Gingrich slippage, sources say DavidDvorkin Dec 2011 #30
Interesting, especially the last two paragraphs grantcart Dec 2011 #35
If Romney doesn't get the nomination this time DavidDvorkin Dec 2011 #36
Who are the people who would vote for Newt Gingrich!? Fire Walk With Me Dec 2011 #33
High end jewelry sales persons grantcart Dec 2011 #34
and divorce lawyers aint_no_life_nowhere Dec 2011 #40
LOL! Wind Dancer Dec 2011 #41
An old college classmate of mine is actually heading up Newt's local campaign. Tommy_Carcetti Dec 2011 #46
It'll be Jeb. They miss having a shrub in the WH. n/t Scuba Dec 2011 #44
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