Schiff v Garvey will likely draw more Rethugs voters out than Schiff v Porter would have. Those extra Rethug

[Mordred]

20. Padilla beat Repub Meuser 61-39 in 2022

Is Garvey really going to perform better than Meuser did 2 years ago. 2022 was close to the pandemic and the economy was worse.
Garvey has no money, doesn't seem to like to campaign and is 75 in a state where we just had a Senator die in office.

Obviously Trump will endorse Garvey but it's hard to imagine he is a candidate that will energize the state party. It's unlikely much outside money will flow to Garvey as there are better investments to make to flip the Senate (like in Maryland, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, etc.)