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TwilightZone

(28,836 posts)
4. There is no correlation between the primaries and the GE.
Wed Mar 13, 2024, 09:43 AM
Mar 2024

They are two very different groups of people. People don't vote in the primaries when the outcome isn't in doubt. On the Democratic side, the nomination was never in doubt. Phillips was a sideshow.

There actually is no historic correlation between primary turnout and general election turnout. None. The highest turnout in a Democratic primary—before the outlier of 2008—was in 1988. Gov. Michael Dukakis got killed in November. Democratic primary turnout was actually lower in 1992—two million fewer Democrats voted in the primaries that year. The drop in turnout didn’t stop Bill Clinton from winning the general election convincingly.


https://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/presidential-campaign/272381-the-truth-about-primary-voter-turnout/

We can use it as motivation, certainly, but it's neither worth the effort people are putting in trying to analyze it, nor the consternation. In the end, it doesn't matter.

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