I was amused to see that DWAC/Trump Media is classified as a meme stock where the value is due to personality and not due to the real value of issuer of the meme stock. This article is a good discussion of the meme nature of DWAC/TMT.
https://www.vanityfair.com/news/donald-trump-truth-social-media-merger
Trump’s financial future now hinges on some of the strangest fads in corporate finance—meme stocks, SPAC deals, and cult-of-personality investing. If Trump can find a way to act fast, it might just be the bailout he desperately needs.
Truth Social is a bad imitation of Twitter, where Trump was an unavoidable presence long before he ran for president. It’s chock full of stale red-pilled memes, MAGA conspiracy theories, and of course, Trump. That’s the main draw. Truth Social is the only place the former president now regularly posts his unfettered thoughts......
DWAC is best thought of as a meme stock. You may remember the meme stock fad from when retail investors on Reddit successfully coordinated a short squeeze with GameStop stock, before glomming onto a series of other millennial nostalgia brands like AMC Entertainment, BlackBerry, and Bed Bath & Beyond. Meme stocks are often publicly traded companies that attract an inordinate percentage of individual investors and their stock performance fluctuates in a way that’s significantly divorced from the reality of their underlying business. Combine those two trends and you’ll start to see why Trump’s media company could be valued at roughly $9 billion if it merges with DWAC.
Jay Ritter, a finance professor at the University of Florida, says meme stocks often depend on the “greater fool theory of investing,” meaning rational investors might buy in expecting the stock price to rise and betting that they can sell their shares to a greater fool willing to buy them at a higher price. In this case, however, Ritter speculates there is an inordinate number of individual retail investors compared to institutional investors, such as hedge funds, that normally own SPAC shares prior to a merger. “Here you’ve got ideology involved [too]—as far as I can tell, the vast majority of DWAC investors are Trump political investors, and they’re to some degree putting their money where their mouth is… My suspicion is most of them have bought the stock as a show of political support.” In this way, Trump is conducting yet another public fundraising from his supporters—this time through the public markets.
TFG is locked up and cannot sell or pledge this stock for six months following the merger. Even if TFG was able to pledge the stock the stock is so volatile that a bank would be crazy to take this stock as collateral.
The problem for Trump here is that when he tries to sell stock, it very well may tank the whole enterprise. (He’s technically restricted from selling stock for six months after the deal closes, but could get a waiver from the board of directors.) “The faster he sells and the more he sells the quicker the stock price will decline,” Ritter said. Another major problem would be if the deal to go public is stalled by a lawsuit—such as a recent one brought against Trump Media from embittered cofounders, who claim their share in the company was diluted by Trump and his allies.
Trump might be able to borrow money with his stock as collateral as a way to gain access to money more quickly, but he would have to either get an exemption from the post-merger company or just move ahead without one and hope that the board lets it slide, Ohlrogge said, since the terms of the agreement with DWAC don’t allow it. “If there were a bank that did take such a deal [allowing Trump to use his stock as collateral], it would raise serious concerns that the bank is doing it for reasons other than a belief it is a profitable lending opportunity,” he said. “Namely, it would raise concerns that the bank is doing it in order to win influence with someone who might become US president. If that bank were affiliated directly or indirectly with a foreign government, it would be even more concerning still.”
Any bank that made such risky loan would be subject to attack. Lawrence O'Donnell commented on Chubb's bond (which appears to be secured by cash) and after such criticism, Chubb backed out
This will be fun to watch
= new reply since forum marked as read