Social Security and the life expectancy meme: the age of SS cutting is upon us again.

[Igel]

118. Your math doesn't work.

If 10% of the population lived long past 65 when 60% of the population only received benefits for a few years that means most of those who died fairly early would never recoup the taxes they paid in. The deceased contributed towards the living, because it was *insurance," not a government-backed pre-funded program that was underfunded in a way that kept it from having large reserves like a normal pension. This was known to my parents and my friends' parents in high school in the '70s. They looked around and saw people, mostly men, dying at age 61, 63, or if they managed to retire they seldom lasted much past 65. Working in a steel mill was rough on the body and working-class lifestyles didn't help. (They sort of forgot that their OASI benefits would devolve to their families, but by then their kids would be adults and their wives didn't always live that many more years.)

In other words, average life expectancy was high so there was a population bottleneck between paying money in and getting money out.

In the '80s they realized the finances were going to go the other way. A greater percentage of the population that had been paying in had longer expectancy of life at retirement, so a larger percentage would collect for longer. At some point the crossover between receipts and expenses would cross over and the small reserve would be exhausted quickly. Hence the bipartisan vote to increase the FICA so as to overtax the workers in order to fully fund those closer to retirement while funding their own OASI benefits.