1. Obama wasn't nearly as unpopular as Biden is currently. On this day in 2012, Obama's average approval was 47.2% and his disapproval 48%. Biden currently? His average approval is 40.6% and his disapproval 55.5%. It has not budged. On March 14, a month ago, Biden's average approval was 40.2 and his disapproval 55.5. In a month, Biden's approval has only gone up by not even a half of a point. His disapproval is literally unchanged. Two months ago? 40.3 and 56% approval/disapproval. In approval, Biden is doing 6.6 points worse than Obama, which isn't a significant difference but where he's killed is disapproval. Obama was barely under water here (.8 points) between breaking even with approval/disapproval. Biden is essentially 15 points underwater and he's doing seven-points worse than Obama in disapproval. Overall, Biden is doing 13.6 points worse than Obama in approval/disapproval.
2. The popular vote was close throughout 2012 but what wasn't close was the electoral college. Not only did Obama lead in most every poll in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin (a reversal for Biden), he was also leading in Iowa and Ohio (two states Biden won't likely win) and running competitive in Florida, which he would eventually win (a state Biden is down big right now and not likely to win).
Obama was far better positioned than Biden is right now. It doesn't mean Biden won't win - and he certainly has a much more favorable opponent than Romney (though Trump is much stronger than Romney in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan) - it just means 2012 is not a good comparison.
Biden is going to have to convince a good amount of those 55% who do not think he's doing a good job to vote for him.
On election day, Obama's disapproval was 47% on average. Surprise, that's how many people voted for Romney.
But it also shows how consistent Obama's approval was throughout 2012. Between this day in 2012 and election day, Obama's disapproval only improved by one-point. If that trend continues with Biden, he'll have a disapproval of 54% on election day - seven-points greater than Obama's.
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