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In reply to the discussion: Here Comes The Polls [View all]In Too Deep
(60 posts)Maybe 30 years ago but we just don't see significant shifts in public sentiment anymore. The last few election cycles have largely been stable through spring, to summer and into fall.
While it certainly can happen, people shouldn't bank on the election polling changing all that much between now and November.
Not only has the Trump-Biden race been pretty consistent over the last year in their numbers, most recent elections have seen little movement between May and November.
For starters, according to the average of polls, Trump leads Biden by 3.2 points. Six months ago? The average was 4.5 points. So, in the past six months (about the length of now to the election), the difference in the margins has been about 1.3 points.
Remember that number.
On this day in 2020, Biden led Trump by an average of 5.3 points.
On election day, he won by 4.5 points.
The difference in the margins was .8 points.
On this day in 2016, Hillary led Trump by 6.2 points.
On election day, she won by 2.1 points.
The difference in the margins was 4.1 points.
On this day in 2012, Obama led Romney by 3.4 points.
On election day, he won by 3.9 points.
The difference in the margins was .5 points.
On this day in 2008, Obama led McCain by 4.5 points on average.
On election day, he won by 7.3.
The difference in the margins was 2.8 points.
On this day in 2004, Bush led Kerry by 4.3 points on average.
On election day, Bush won by 2.4 points.
The difference in the margins was 1.5 points.
So, out of the last five elections, only once did the polls shift more than three-points: 2016.
That's remarkably stable. Even the Hillary shift was only 4.1 points.
Not dramatic.
Assume a similar shift in favor of Biden and be wins the popular vote by .9 points.
Would that be enough to win him the electoral college?
Truth is, most modern elections start to become settled around this time. It's not 1992 or 1988 or 1980 anymore where a candidate is seemingly down 10+ points and has a comeback after the conventions.
We know convention bounces aren't nearly the force they used to be (Clinton's lead ballooned to nearly 30 points in 1992 after the Democratic Convention, and Bush famously took control of his race after his convention in 1988) and this is due to how deeply partisan America is now.
We're not likely to see a blowout election. It's going to remain tight throughout.
Both candidates are basically fighting over the same 10% of votes that will decide this election.
Because of that, any dramatic shift is very unlikely.
Unless the polls are off. Like historically off. And maybe they are. But most the elections over the last 20 years have come in within not only a couple points of the final polls on average, but also where the polls were in early May.
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